Market Overview: Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – Volatility, Reversal Signals, and Entry Opportunities

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• SOLJPY opened at 28,608, surged to 28,967 before a sharp reversal, closed at 28,655 with mixed momentum.
• High volatility seen in early morning hours, with Bollinger Band expansion and RSI reaching overbought levels.
• Volume spiked during major breakouts, but late-day divergence suggests potential reversal risk.
• Bearish engulfing pattern formed at 28,800, 61.8% Fibonacci support near 28,600 may determine near-term direction.

The Solana/Yen pair (SOLJPY) opened at 28,608 on 2025-11-01 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of 28,967 before a significant reversal, and closed at 28,655 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-02. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,774.774 units, with notional turnover of ¥49,563,681. The pair exhibited a volatile, range-bound pattern, with a bearish bias in the latter half of the session.

The 15-minute chart shows a clear breakdown after a bullish phase. Key support levels include 28,500 and 28,300, with resistance at 28,800 and 29,000. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 28,800, indicating a potential short-term reversal. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, signaling bearish momentum. The 50-period MA is currently at 28,740, while the 20-period MA is at 28,715. On a daily timeframe, the 50-day MA is at 28,800 and the 200-day MA at 28,650, suggesting mixed signals for the longer term.

MACD shows a bearish crossover, with the histogram turning negative after a short bullish phase. RSI reached an overbought level of 75 before dropping to neutral ground, indicating potential exhaustion in the upward move. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning session, reaching a width of 1,200 points, and price currently sits near the lower band at 28,655, suggesting potential for a rebound.

Volume spiked during key breakout attempts, particularly between 2025-11-02 04:00–06:00 ET, but declined during the bearish phase, indicating possible divergence. Turnover increased during these periods, confirming the strength of the initial move. A Fibonacci retracement from the 24-hour high to low shows key levels at 28,800 (38.2%), 28,650 (50%), and 28,500 (61.8%). Current price is near the 61.8% level, indicating a potential pivot zone for traders.

A strong short-term bearish trend is emerging, with key support at 28,600 and 28,500 likely to test in the next 24 hours. Traders may look for a break below 28,500 as a confirmation of a deeper pullback, but a rebound to 28,800 could test the validity of the bearish signal. Volatility remains high, and traders should be cautious of sharp reversals or a breakout above 29,000, which would invalidate the current bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the dynamic nature of the Solana/Yen pair and the presence of key technical indicators like RSI and MACD, a backtesting approach could provide further insight into potential strategies. One viable approach is to leverage the RSI for momentum trading. A 14-period RSI applied to the synthetic ¥-denominated price (derived from SOL-USD and USDJPY cross rates) could help identify overbought and oversold conditions. By implementing a basic "buy-when-RSI < 30 / sell-when-RSI > 70" strategy from 2022-01-01 to today, we can assess its viability for the pair. This approach aligns with the current RSI behavior observed on the 15-minute chart, where overbought levels triggered bearish divergence. If you confirm this method works with your preferred data source, we can present performance metrics and an equity curve for further analysis.