Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY): Volatility and Reversal Potential

• SOLJPY experienced a sharp drop from 30,361 to 29,430 Yen in 5 hours, followed by a recovery into the final 6 hours.
• Price retested key support levels at 29,430 and 29,600, showing resilience amid bearish momentum.
• Volatility surged during the selloff with high turnover, but waned during the rebound.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions early in the session, but divergence emerged after the rebound.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff and narrowed during consolidation, indicating a potential reversal.

Opening and Closing Dynamics

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 30,361 Yen at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 30,303 Yen by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-29. The pair hit a 24-hour high of 30,596 Yen and a low of 29,430 Yen. Total volume traded was 12,568.59 SOL, and notional turnover reached 380.6 million Yen, reflecting heightened interest during the session's volatility. The candlestick pattern displayed a strong bearish impulse followed by a moderate bullish rebound, creating a potential reversal setup.

Structure & Formations

A sharp bearish impulse in the first five hours brought price down from 30,361 to 29,430 Yen. This formed a long-bodied bearish candle with a strong low. A series of bullish candles followed, forming a hammer-like structure near the 29,430 level, suggesting potential support. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged as price closed above the midpoint of the bearish impulse, indicating a possible short-term reversal. A doji formed near the 29,535 level, signaling indecision after the recovery.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows that the price retested the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the rebound. The 20-SMA and 50-SMA crossed from above to below the price trend, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day moving averages appear to be aligned in a bullish configuration, suggesting longer-term support for the pair remains intact despite the recent bearish correction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the bearish move and showed a bearish crossover with the signal line. However, the histogram reversed into positive territory as the price rebounded, suggesting renewed bullish momentum. The RSI indicator confirmed oversold conditions, dropping below 30 during the selloff and then rebounding above 40 in the final hours of the session, signaling a potential short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early bearish phase, indicating heightened volatility. As the price stabilized, the bands began to contract, signaling a potential slowdown in price movement. The price closed near the upper band of the most recent bullish move, suggesting continuation potential if the band remains in an ascending trend. A volatility contraction could precede a breakout or breakdown depending on the direction of the next impulse.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish impulse and remained elevated during the early stages of the rebound, confirming the strength of both the selloff and the recovery. Turnover surged during the first 5 hours of the session but declined afterward, indicating a possible exhaustion of bearish pressure. A divergence between price and volume during the rebound should be monitored, as it could signal waning bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 30,361 to 29,430 swing showed that the price rebounded from the 61.8% retracement level at 29,600, which acted as a strong support. The 38.2% level at 29,886 was tested as the price moved higher in the latter part of the session. These levels may continue to act as key price barriers in the next 24 hours, influencing both bearish and bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the RSI-14 confirmed oversold conditions and the strong rebound from key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels, a potential backtest strategy could be based on using the RSI as an entry signal. A buy signal could be triggered when RSI drops below 30, with a 3-day hold for profit. While direct RSI-14 data for SOLJPY was not available, an approximation using SOLUSDT prices and USDJPY conversion could offer a proxy. This approach would allow for testing the effectiveness of the oversold RSI strategy in capturing short-term rebounds in the pair’s price movement.