Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY): Volatility, Divergence, and Overbought Momentum

• Solana/Yen declined sharply, closing at 33825.0 Yen after hitting 34304.0 Yen.
• Volume surged during late ET, with a divergence in price and turnover.
• MACD and RSI suggest overbought conditions, indicating potential for a pullback.
• Volatility increased as Bollinger Bands widened, signaling a breakout attempt.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed, suggesting short-term bearish momentum.

The Solana/Yen pair (SOLJPY) opened at 33704.0 Yen on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at 33825.0 Yen on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, after touching a high of 34304.0 Yen and a low of 31764.0 Yen. Total volume across the 24-hour period was approximately 10,994.24 SOL, while total notional turnover was around 356,112,337.0 Yen. The pair exhibited a volatile session, marked by sharp swings and divergent price-volume patterns.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure shows multiple bearish and bullish formations. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the top of the 34304.0 Yen high, signaling a potential reversal. A doji formed near 33800 Yen, indicating indecision. Resistance levels are clustered around 34000–34300 Yen, while support is forming between 33300 and 32500 Yen.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging with price currently approaching the 20-period MA from above, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. For the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are within 500 Yen of each other, indicating potential for a breakout or consolidation phase in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line is negative and crossing below the signal line, with the histogram showing bearish divergence. RSI is in overbought territory (above 70), suggesting a potential for a pullback. A sharp RSI drop from over 80 to the mid-60s in the last hour of the period may signal exhaustion in the bullish move and a possible bearish correction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly as volatility increased during the late ET session, with price closing just inside the upper band. This suggests a period of high volatility and could indicate a breakout attempt. The mid-band sits around 33500–33700 Yen, acting as a potential dynamic support level for the next few hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late ET hours, particularly after 3:00 AM ET, with heavy trading at the 34304.0 Yen high. However, notional turnover did not fully confirm the strength of these moves, with a divergence forming between rising prices and flat-to-declining turnover. This divergence may foreshadow a short-term reversal or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent 15-minute move from 31764.0 to 34304.0 Yen suggest key levels at 33555 (38.2%) and 33110 (61.8%). Price is currently sitting just above the 33555 level, suggesting it may either consolidate or test the next level down if bearish momentum continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA and RSI exceeds 70 on the 15-minute chart. Stop-loss levels can be set above the upper Bollinger Band, with take-profit targets aligned with the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. This strategy would seek to capitalize on short-term overbought momentum and bearish divergence in the context of expanding volatility and price-volume divergence.