Market Overview: Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – Volatile 24-Hour Downtrend with Oversold Conditions

• Price declined from 30,224 to 28,684, a 4.6% drop over 24 hours, with bearish momentum intensifying in the final 12 hours.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with a 38.2% Fibonacci level at 29,230 acting as a temporary support, followed by a breakdown.
• Volume increased from 118.577 to 702.191 SOL in the final candle, indicating growing bearish conviction in the last hours.
• RSI reached oversold territory below 30 in the final hours, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, though without bullish confirmation.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the sell-off, confirming a phase of high volatility and uncertainty.

The Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) pair opened at 30,224 on 2025-09-25 at 16:00 ET and closed at 28,684 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 30,300 and the low was 28,680. Total volume traded was 13,313.186 SOL, with notional turnover amounting to 389,330,413 JPY.

The price action formed a bearish trend with several long lower shadows and bearish engulfing patterns in the later half of the 24-hour window. The breakdown below 29,230—a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level from the 15-minute swing high—signaled a potential shift in sentiment. A notable bearish pinbar at 29,196 on 00:45 ET marked a key moment in the downward spiral. Support is currently forming near the 28,680 level, with potential for a short-term bounce if buyers step in.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a sharp bearish crossover, with the 20-period MA dipping below the 50-period line. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period line, indicating a longer-term bullish bias despite the recent drop. The RSI entered oversold territory below 30 for the last four hours of the window, though no decisive bullish reversal pattern formed to confirm a bounce. The MACD remained bearish with a negative divergence, suggesting continued selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands expanded in the final 8 hours of the 24-hour period, with prices trading at the lower band and occasionally dipping below it, indicating heightened volatility and risk of a follow-through decline. Volume spiked in the final candle at 28,684, reaching 702.191 SOL, which could imply a temporary exhaustion of sellers or early buying accumulation. However, a divergence between price and turnover suggests that buyers may not be fully committed.

The Backtest Hypothesis strategy described aims to capture short-term directional moves by identifying key support levels and divergences in RSI and MACD, followed by a volume confirmation. This approach aligns well with the observed behavior of the 15-minute chart, particularly in the final 4 hours of the 24-hour window. A potential trade entry could have been triggered at the 29,196 level after a bearish pinbar formation, with a stop-loss above 29,360 and a target near 28,900. Given the RSI’s oversold condition and the volume spike in the final candle, the strategy could be applied to test for a short-term bounce or a continuation of the downtrend. Traders would benefit from combining this signal with the Fibonacci 38.2% level as a reference for potential retests.