Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – September 5, 2025

• SOLJPY opened at 30344 and closed at 30536, with a high of 30900 and low of 29860 over 24 hours.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged after 7:00 ET with a 15-minute high of 30900.
• Volume surged significantly in the 7:00–9:00 ET window, confirming price action.
• Volatility expanded, with price reaching the upper Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart.
• RSI peaked near 70, suggesting overbought conditions and potential for a pullback.

At 12:00 ET on September 5, 2025, Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 30344, reached a high of 30900, and closed at 30536, with a low of 29860 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 9,873.28, while notional turnover reached 304,261,189 Yen, indicating strong market engagement and liquidity.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data shows a key support level forming around 30000–30100 Yen, where price found temporary stability multiple times during the night. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 7:30 ET, following a consolidation phase between 6:00 and 7:00 ET. A strong rejection of lower support levels was observed in the early morning session, which may indicate increasing conviction among buyers. A potential resistance cluster is forming near 30900–30784, with the 30900 level being a key psychological barrier.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed to the upside between 6:00 and 7:30 ET, signaling a shift in trend. Price closed above both MA lines at the 24-hour mark, suggesting bullish momentum could continue. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be acting as a dynamic support level, while the 200-period MA is slightly below the current price, suggesting potential for a deeper bullish move if this support holds.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive after 6:00 ET and remained above the zero line through the 8:00 ET window, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The histogram showed divergence at 8:00–9:00 ET, suggesting a potential slowdown or consolidation ahead. The RSI crossed into overbought territory (above 70) after 7:30 ET, which could lead to a short-term pullback. However, the price managed to stay above the 30344–30529 range during this time, suggesting strong demand and potential for continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 6:00–8:00 ET window, with price reaching the upper Bollinger Band and remaining there for several candles. This suggests a period of aggressive buying and compressed selling pressure. Conversely, the morning session from 00:00–5:00 ET showed a contraction in volatility, with price consolidating between the bands. This could be a precursor to a breakout, as seen in the 7:30 ET candle, which closed near the upper band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked from 7:00–8:00 ET, with the largest single candle showing 169.545 in volume and a high of 30900. This aligns with the strong price move to the upper Bollinger Band and confirms the bullish breakout. The notional turnover also surged during this period, reaching a peak of over 5.1M Yen in a single 15-minute candle. However, volume began to decrease slightly after 9:00 ET, suggesting that the initial buying wave may be subsiding. A divergence is forming between price and volume in the 9:00–9:30 ET window, indicating a possible pause or correction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the 15-minute swing from 29860 to 30900 suggest a 61.8% retracement near 30498 and a 38.2% retracement near 30602. Price has tested and held above the 61.8% level during the 8:00–9:00 ET window, suggesting that sellers are becoming less aggressive. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracements from recent corrections align with current support and resistance clusters, offering potential targets for both bulls and bears.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy aims to identify potential breakout opportunities by combining RSI overbought signals with volume confirmation. Specifically, the strategy triggers a long entry when RSI crosses above 70 and volume increases by at least 30% compared to the prior 30-minute candle. It exits when RSI dips below 50 or a 2% stop-loss is triggered. Given the current market dynamics, this strategy would have triggered a long signal at 7:30 ET when RSI entered overbought territory and volume surged. The initial target would be the 30737–30900 range, with a stop-loss at 30529. This aligns with the current technical setup and the Fibonacci levels discussed, making it a viable short-term bullish hypothesis.