Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – November 3, 2025

• Solana/Yen declined 5.3% in 24 hours, closing near 27067 after an intraday low of 25682.
• Heavy selling pressure emerged after 15:30 ET, with a 1322.4k volume candle driving a 14.3% drop.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 27091–25682, signaling a high-probability continuation of the downtrend.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory (<30) by 16:00 ET, suggesting potential short-term bounce, but bearish momentum remains strong.
• Bollinger Bands show a sharp volatility expansion following the early morning range contraction.

The Solana/Yen pair (SOLJPY) opened at 28292 on November 2, peaked at 29017 before a sharp pullback, and closed at 27067 by 12:00 ET on November 3. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 26,524.83, with a turnover of 737.64 million yen. The price declined on increasing volume after 15:30 ET, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming on a 1322.4k yen volume candle. The move marked a 14.3% drop in a single session and pushed the price into oversold RSI territory (<30), hinting at potential near-term retests of 25682 as a support level.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trend downward, with price below both. This reinforces bearish momentum, suggesting continuation of the decline for the next 24 hours. The daily 50, 100, and 200-period EMAs remain bearish, with the 50-period line falling below the 100-period, signaling an ongoing bear trend. The price closed below both 200 and 100-period lines, indicating the downtrend has deepened significantly.

MACD shows a large bearish divergence on the 15-minute chart, with the line falling well below the signal line. RSI is in oversold territory but has yet to show a meaningful bounce. Bollinger Bands show a sharp expansion from the early morning consolidation, indicating increased volatility. Price is near the lower band at 25682–25917, suggesting a potential retest of this level before any meaningful reversal. Fibonacci retracement levels suggest a possible bounce at the 38.2% level (~26200) or a deeper retracement at 50% (~26600), but bearish momentum may overpower these levels.

A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 27091–25682, and the price is now trading near the lower end of the Bollinger Bands. Volume spiked sharply after 15:30 ET, confirming the bearish breakout. The 20 and 50-period moving averages remain in a steep downward slope. RSI is near the 30 level, indicating a possible short-term bounce. The MACD is in a strong bearish phase with significant bear divergence. Given the sharp drop and high volume, the pair could face further selling pressure in the next 24 hours unless buyers step in to defend the 25682 level. However, any near-term bounce should be treated with caution due to the depth of the bear trend and the lack of strong reversal signals.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy in question centers on using the 14-period RSI to identify oversold conditions for an ETF. In this case, the system attempted to backtest this strategy on the HOLD.P ETF but faced a data retrieval error due to an invalid ticker. In the context of this Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) pair, RSI similarly dipped below 30, indicating an oversold condition, but the bearish momentum has yet to reverse. A hypothetical RSI-oversold strategy applied to this pair would likely signal a short-term rebound, but the strong downtrend suggests caution. For illustration, the strategy could be retested on a well-quoted ETF like XLB or XLV to evaluate the performance of RSI-based signals in bearish conditions. Once a valid ticker is provided, the strategy can be applied accordingly.