Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY)

• SOLJPY opened at ¥24,757 and closed at ¥24,555, with a 24-hour high of ¥25,309 and low of ¥24,634.
• A broad intraday range of ¥2,700 signals high volatility and indecision.
• Volume increased sharply in the early hours, tapering off as the pair approached the session close.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought and bearish momentum, respectively.
• A key support level is forming near ¥24,500, with a critical resistance at ¥25,000.

The Solana/Yen pair (SOLJPY) opened at ¥24,757 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at ¥24,555 at 12:00 ET the same day, hitting a high of ¥25,309 and a low of ¥24,634. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,337.069, with notional turnover amounting to ¥33,763,322. Price action revealed a choppy session with sharp swings, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key resistance near ¥25,000 and ¥25,300 multiple times, forming bearish reversal patterns such as the Shooting Star and Bearish Engulfing. These patterns emerged in the early part of the session. The price then fell into a consolidation phase, suggesting bearish exhaustion above ¥24,900 but strong support emerging near ¥24,500. A bearish breakdown below ¥24,500 could trigger a retest of ¥24,300.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, signaling short-term bearish momentum. The 200-period daily moving average sits at ¥24,800, acting as a psychological and technical threshold. If the pair closes below the 50-period MA on the daily chart, a deeper correction into ¥24,300 could follow.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish with a negative histogram and bearish crossover, while the RSI closed in overbought territory at 66, hinting at potential reversal. However, the divergence between price and RSI suggests caution—bulls may still defend the ¥24,500–24,600 range. A RSI drop below 50 could confirm the bearish bias, but a rebound above 60 might suggest a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened in the first half of the session, reflecting high volatility, with the price frequently testing the upper band. The bands have since tightened, indicating a potential pause in momentum. If the price breaks out of the consolidation and remains above ¥24,700, the bands may expand again, pointing to renewed bullish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked early in the session, particularly during the ¥25,000–25,300 range, with a total of 1,337.069 in volume. Turnover also increased in line with volume, confirming the strength of the bearish move post-break. However, the tapering of volume as the price approached ¥24,500 suggests waning bearish conviction and the possibility of a near-term bottom forming.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the ¥24,757–25,309 swing, key levels to watch include 61.8% at ¥24,974 and 38.2% at ¥25,087. A retest of the 61.8% level may offer a short-term entry for bears. Daily retracements from the ¥24,635–25,309 range indicate a critical support at 38.2% near ¥24,932 and a bearish target at 78.6% near ¥24,500.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using a bearish engulfing pattern as a trigger for short entries, the strategy could be applied to SOLJPY for intraday trades. Each pattern detection would prompt a short position at the next bar's open, with an exit at the close. Key metrics to evaluate would include the average return per trade, win rate, and drawdown. A strong negative bias in the current MACD and RSI aligns with this strategy, potentially increasing the success probability in a near-term bearish scenario.