Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY)

• SOLJPY opened at 36772.0, peaked at 37515.0, and closed at 35508.0, down 17.2% from 12:00 ET-1 to 12:00 ET.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged at the peak with a large-volume candle closing at 37362.0 followed by a sharp decline.
• Volatility spiked with a 903-point range in one candle, and turnover surged in the mid-afternoon ET session.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 30, but failed to generate a rebound, suggesting continued bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands showed a significant contraction in the final hours of the 24-hour period.

SOLJPY opened at 36772.0 and reached a high of 37515.0 before plunging to a 24-hour low of 35508.0 by 12:00 ET. Total volume was 14,002.0, and notional turnover exceeded 500 million JPY. The price action displayed sharp bearish momentum after a key reversal candle at 17:30 ET, which marked the beginning of a sustained sell-off.

Structure and price formations revealed a strong bearish trend with key support levels forming near 36800 and 36500. A long lower shadow candle at 00:30 ET on 2025-09-19 signaled a temporary pause in the decline, but failed to hold above 36700. Multiple doji and small-bodied candles in the final hours indicated exhaustion among sellers. Resistance levels remain intact at 37300 and 37500, where earlier price rejections were evident.

The 15-minute MACD showed bearish crossover with both lines in negative territory, while the RSI moved into oversold territory near 30 but failed to trigger a meaningful rebound. Bollinger Bands displayed a contraction in the last 5 hours, indicating a potential breakout. The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 50-period line, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the price remains below all key moving averages (50, 100, 200), confirming a sustained bearish bias.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 37515.0 high and 35508.0 low revealed potential support at 36400 and 36100. The price action aligned with the 61.8% level near 36400 before breaking through to 35508.0. Notable divergence was seen between price and turnover in the final hours, with declining volume accompanying a sharp price drop, signaling potential exhaustion and setting the stage for a near-term consolidation phase.

The backtesting hypothesis leverages the technical signals observed today. A strategy could be built around the bearish crossover in the MACD, the oversold RSI without a rebound, and the failure to hold above key Fibonacci levels. A sell entry would be triggered on a close below 36400, with a stop-loss above 37000 and a target near 35000. The low volume in the final leg down suggests the move may lack follow-through, making this a high-conviction short-term bearish setup.