Market Overview: Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – 24-Hour Technical Summary

• SOLJPY opened at ¥30,463 and traded between ¥30,155 and ¥31,514 over 24 hours, closing at ¥30,597.
• Momentum diverged during the afternoon Yen rally, with bearish divergence in RSI around ¥30,200.
• Volatility spiked during the early morning Yen advance, with a 15-minute high at ¥31,514 and a 10% move within 4.5 hours.
• The 20-period EMA provided support during the retracement to ¥30,300, but failed to hold below ¥30,500.
• Bollinger Bands show recent tightening before the ¥30,500 break and subsequent wide expansion during the rally.

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at ¥30,463 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥30,597 at the same time the next day. The pair reached a high of ¥31,514 and a low of ¥30,155. Total traded volume over the 24-hour window was 12,088.825 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥373.85 million, calculated using average trade prices.

Over the past 24 hours, SOLJPY demonstrated a volatile, range-bound pattern with multiple directional swings. Price broke the ¥30,500 psychological level early in the morning but failed to sustain above it, forming a bearish engulfing pattern around ¥30,450. This suggests a potential short-term reversal after the bullish breakout. A late-day rally to ¥31,514, driven by strong buying pressure, marked a sharp counter-trend move that caught many short positions by surprise.

The 20-period and 50-period EMAs on the 15-minute chart acted as dynamic support/resistance lines, with the 50-period line forming a key pivot point. RSI hit overbought levels multiple times during the rally, hinting at exhaustion in the upside move. MACD showed a positive divergence early in the rally, but momentum waned as the day progressed, with a bearish crossover occurring near the end of the trading window.

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly before the ¥30,500 break, indicating a potential breakout moment, followed by a sharp expansion during the rally. Price then retracted back into the lower band as bearish sentiment retook control. Volume spiked significantly during the early morning rally, with the highest single 15-minute turnover occurring at ¥31,128. Notable divergence between volume and price was observed during the late afternoon sell-off, where volume remained low despite a sharp drop, hinting at weak follow-through in the bearish move.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the ¥30,155 to ¥31,514 swing show key levels at ¥30,889 (38.2%), ¥31,263 (50%), and ¥31,430 (61.8%). Price briefly tested the 61.8% level but failed to hold it during the sell-off. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are aligned bearishly, with price currently below both. This suggests a longer-term bearish bias unless a clear break above ¥31,500 materializes.

Backtest Hypothesis
The “sell on break below ¥30,500” strategy would have entered on 2025-10-26 at 19:30 ET as the price closed below that level. A clear exit rule is essential for the backtest’s success. One viable approach would be to close the position when the price closes back above ¥30,500, effectively capturing short-term bearish momentum while limiting downside risk. Alternatively, a fixed-time exit (e.g., 5 trading days) could be used for consistency. Given the recent volatility, combining both a price-based exit and a stop-loss (e.g., -8% or ¥29,300) would offer a balanced approach, protecting against sharp counter-moves. A full backtest incorporating these rules would provide clarity on the strategy’s profitability and robustness.