Market Overview: Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) 24-Hour Technical Summary

• SOLJPY opened at 33,284 and surged to a 24-hour high of 34,740 before retreating to close at 34,084 at 12:00 ET.
• Key resistance held near 34,500, with a bearish divergence in volume and price observed in the final 6 hours.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions during the morning rally, followed by a pullback into neutral territory.
• Bollinger Bands reflected volatility expansion during the rally and contraction as the pair consolidated.
• Notable bearish engulfing patterns emerged after 22:30 ET, suggesting potential near-term downward pressure.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03, Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) closed at 34,084, having opened at 33,284 the previous day. The pair reached a high of 34,740 and a low of 33,284 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 10,419.53 SOL, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥354,047,128 (calculated using average prices). The price action displayed a strong bullish bias early, followed by a gradual correction and consolidation into the close.

Structure & Formations

Price formed multiple bullish and bearish candlestick patterns over the course of the day. The morning session saw a strong upward move marked by a bullish engulfing pattern at 18:45 ET, breaking above 34,127. Later, as the rally stalled, a bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 22:30 ET, signaling potential exhaustion. A notable doji formed at 00:15 ET, indicating indecision and a possible reversal point. Key support levels appear to be forming around the 34,000–34,100 zone, while resistance remains strong near 34,500 and 34,700.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA provided dynamic support, while the 50-period MA acted as a temporary resistance during the morning rally. For the daily timeframe, the 50-period and 200-period MAs suggest a neutral to slightly bearish bias, with price currently hovering below the 50-period MA, indicating a potential pullback after the recent surge.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bullish signal in the early morning session but diverged from price action as the rally extended into the late evening. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) at 03:15 ET, confirming the aggressive buying before rolling over into neutral territory by 06:00 ET. A bearish crossover in the MACD histogram from 04:45 ET onward suggests weakening momentum and a possible continuation of the downward drift.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the morning surge, with prices moving above the upper band for several hours, indicating a strong bullish move. As the pair corrected, volatility contracted and price moved into the middle of the Bollinger Bands by 07:00 ET. The narrowing bands suggest a potential breakout or breakdown, with the next significant move likely to be driven by either bullish or bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the morning session, particularly between 18:15 ET and 19:30 ET, coinciding with the major upswing in price. However, after 01:00 ET, volume decreased despite continued price movement, indicating a potential divergence. The largest single-volume candle (344.518 SOL at 07:00 ET) marked the start of the correction, showing a shift in sentiment toward the bears.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 18:00–20:00 ET bullish swing shows 34,158 as the 23.6% retrace level, which held as a support. The 38.2% and 61.8% retracements at 33,954 and 33,700, respectively, may serve as potential targets for a deeper pullback should bearish momentum continue. Daily-level retracements from the 22:30 ET high suggest a potential key support at 33,500 for the next 24-hour period.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using the identified 15-minute candlestick patterns—specifically the bullish engulfing and doji—combined with RSI divergence and Bollinger Band breakouts, a potential backtesting strategy could be constructed. A long entry would be triggered on a bullish engulfing pattern with RSI below 30 and a Bollinger Band touch, with a stop loss placed just below the previous swing low. A short position could be initiated upon a bearish engulfing pattern with RSI above 70 and a Bollinger Band touch, with a stop loss above the prior swing high. This strategy emphasizes momentum confirmation and volatility signals to filter high-probability setups.