Market Overview: Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – 24-Hour Technical Summary (2025-10-03)

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• Price surged from ¥33,284 to ¥34,544 before retracing to ¥33,743, forming a bullish flag pattern with high volume at breakout.
• RSI hit overbought levels near 75, indicating potential pullback, while Bollinger Bands show recent volatility expansion.
• Volume spiked during the ¥34,000–34,500 range, confirming strength, but recent turnover dipped with price consolidation.
• A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is forming near ¥34,000–33,900, suggesting a critical area for near-term direction.
• MACD remained above signal line through much of the session, reflecting sustained upward momentum, though divergence emerged in final hours.

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at ¥33,284 on October 2, 2025, and surged to a high of ¥34,544 before retracing to a 24-hour close of ¥33,743 on October 3. Total volume amounted to 7,442.59 units, with a notional turnover of ¥252,534,548, reflecting significant activity in the ¥34,000–34,500 range.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a textbook bullish flag pattern following a sharp upward move from ¥33,284 to ¥34,544, followed by consolidation within a narrow range before breaking out. A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern appeared around ¥34,544–34,332, hinting at profit-taking. A large bearish marubozu formed in the final hour of the session, signaling a possible reversal. Key support levels currently appear at ¥34,000 and ¥33,700, while resistance is near ¥34,544 and ¥34,628.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA has risen above the 50-period SMA, reinforcing the bullish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period SMA approaching the 100-period SMA from above, suggesting a potential continuation of upward momentum, though a flattening in the 200-period SMA suggests long-term caution.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained above the signal line for much of the session, indicating sustained upward momentum. However, a bearish divergence formed in the last few hours, as price made a new high but MACD did not. RSI hit overbought territory (75–80) during the ¥34,500–34,300 correction, suggesting potential near-term pullback. RSI is currently consolidating between 55–65, indicating a balanced market.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the ¥33,284–34,544 move, pushing price to the upper band. Price subsequently retracted and now trades near the midline, with a potential bounce or breakdown to the lower band possible. A contraction in band width is forming, signaling a possible breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the ¥34,000–34,500 range, confirming the strength of the upward move. However, in the final hour, volume dropped while price declined, hinting at waning buying pressure. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at ¥34,400–34,500 before declining with the pullback. A divergence between volume and price suggests caution for further upward momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the ¥33,284–34,544 move, the 61.8% retracement level is at ¥33,875, which aligns with recent support. A bounce from this level could lead to a retest of the ¥34,000–34,100 area, while a breakdown would target the ¥33,500–33,400 range. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements from the recent high point out key levels for continued support/resistance monitoring.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent flag pattern and divergence in RSI and MACD, a short-term breakout and retest strategy could be considered. A potential long entry would be placed above the ¥34,000 psychological level with a stop just below ¥33,800 and a target at ¥34,400–34,544. A short position could be triggered upon a close below ¥33,800 with a stop above ¥34,000 and a target at ¥33,500–33,400. This strategy would benefit from close monitoring of volume and Fibonacci levels as confirmation of the trade.