Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis

Summary• Price dropped sharply from 23,448 to 21,857, signaling bearish momentum and a potential breakdown.
• High volume observed during early Asian session but failed to support a recovery, indicating weak conviction.
• RSI reached oversold territory suggesting exhaustion in the bearish move, with possible near-term bounce.

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 23,400 on November 13, 2025, reached a high of 23,448, and a low of 21,811 before closing at 21,857 as of 12:00 ET on November 14. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 13,450.60 contracts, while total turnover reached 304,600,390.30 JPY. The pair exhibited strong bearish sentiment, marked by a sharp intraday drop and high volatility.

Structure & Formations

SOLJPY formed a distinct bearish engulfing pattern around the 22,400–22,600 range, followed by a long bearish candle that closed at 21,857. A key support level appears forming near 21,800–21,900, where the price has consolidated. Notable bearish divergence occurred after the 23,000 level, which failed to hold, indicating bearish dominance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, confirming bearish momentum. The 50EMA remains a critical line to watch for further directional bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA is approaching the 22,200 level, which, if breached, could confirm a deeper bearish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish death cross, reinforcing the ongoing downtrend. RSI dropped into oversold territory (below 30), which historically can precede short-term rebounds. However, without a follow-through in volume, a bearish continuation is more likely.

Bollinger Bands

The price dropped below the lower Bollinger Band at 21,850, indicating high volatility and increased bearish pressure. The contraction before the drop suggested a breakout was likely, and the move has now confirmed a bearish break. A reversal near the 21,800–21,900 level could bring the lower band back into play.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early Asian session (04:45–06:00 ET), with a single candle (04:45 ET) showing a volume of 1,328.80 contracts, suggesting active bearish participation. However, the price failed to rebound above 22,000, pointing to weak follow-through. Turnover confirmed the bearish bias with a sharp drop in the 21,800–21,900 range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels for the recent 15-minute swing from 23,448 to 21,857 show a 61.8% retracement near 22,400–22,500, which acted as a resistance during the consolidation phase. The daily Fibonacci levels from 23,400 to 21,857 suggest a possible bounce from the 21,900 level but will require strong volume and bullish confirmation to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest using a MACD Death Cross strategy—selling on signal and holding for one day—resulted in significant underperformance, with a cumulative return of -26.59%. This aligns with today's bearish MACD cross, suggesting similar outcomes if applied in isolation. The low RSI and lack of bullish follow-through highlight the limitations of relying solely on momentum-based signals during volatile downturns. Divergences in volume and price action further undermine the efficacy of such an approach.