Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – 2025-11-12

• SOLJPY traded in a bearish consolidation pattern, closing at 24,255.0 after a 24-hour low of 23,711.0.
• Momentum indicators show oversold conditions, suggesting potential near-term reversal.
• Heavy volume spikes during the Asian and European sessions indicate significant accumulation or distribution.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 24,713.0 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded as high as 24,825.0 before reaching a 24-hour low of 23,711.0. The pair closed at 24,255.0 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 3,299.34 units, with notional turnover of 82,787,901.0 Yen. The price action reflects a bearish pullback but shows signs of stabilizing in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The price structure for SOLJPY shows a bearish consolidation pattern, with key support forming around the 23,900–24,000.0 level and resistance in the 24,500.0–24,600.0 range. A long lower shadow in the final candle at 08:30 ET (24,255.0) suggests potential short-covering or accumulation near the 24,000.0 level. A bullish engulfing pattern appears in the 05:30–05:45 ET window, signaling a potential reversal in the short-term trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is below the 50-period line, indicating a bearish short-term bias. However, the price is currently above both, suggesting a possible retracement. On the daily chart, the 50 and 100-period moving averages appear to be converging, with the 200-period line offering a key psychological support level at around 23,500.0.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped below 30 during the early hours, indicating oversold conditions. This could suggest a potential bounce. The MACD histogram turned positive in the final hours, with a slight crossover of the signal line, signaling a possible short-term reversal in bearish momentum. However, the overall trend remains bearish, with the MACD line still below the zero line.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the Asian and European sessions, with the Bollinger Bands widening and the price reaching the lower band at 23,711.0. The price has since closed near the middle band, suggesting a possible consolidation phase. If the price closes above the upper band in the next 24 hours, it could indicate a shift in momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 280.36 units during the 05:45–06:00 ET window, coinciding with a sharp price rebound. Turnover also increased during the early hours, reflecting heightened market activity. A divergence between price and volume in the later European session suggests a potential exhaustion of selling pressure, which may support a near-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent 15-minute swing (23,711.0–24,203.0), the 38.2% level is at 23,950.0 and the 61.8% level is at 24,086.0. The 50% level at 23,957.0 appears to be acting as a strong support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level is at 24,300.0 and could offer resistance in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the RSI oversold conditions and the MACD crossover, a potential backtesting strategy could be built around the RSI-oversold rule. This approach would look to capture potential rebounds after a bearish pullback. For a general crypto investor, the ideal settings would be a 14-period RSI with an oversold threshold at 30, combined with a 50-period moving average as a trend filter. Traders could enter long positions when RSI < 30 and the price is above the 50-period MA, and exit after a 5-day holding period. This method would align well with the observed structure on the 15-minute chart and provide a data-driven entry strategy.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

The technical indicators suggest that SOLJPY may be due for a short-term bounce off the 24,000.0 level, especially if buying pressure intensifies in the coming 24 hours. However, the broader bearish trend remains intact, and a retest of the 23,700.0 level could occur if momentum fails to sustain. Investors should monitor the 50-period moving average and watch for a potential divergence between price and RSI as key risk signals.