Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) on 2025-11-08

• Price surged from ¥24,061 to ¥25,220 before consolidating into a bearish correction.
• Strong momentum reversed with oversold RSI and contracting Bollinger Bands.
• Volume spiked during the rally but waned during the pullback, signaling potential exhaustion.
• 20-period MA crossed above 50-period MA early in the session, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level near ¥24,800 offered initial support, which held during the consolidation phase.

The Solana/Yen pair (SOLJPY) opened at ¥24,061 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and surged to an intra-day high of ¥25,220 before closing at ¥24,816 by 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour range extended between ¥24,016 and ¥25,220, with total volume reaching 6,049.59 and notional turnover hitting ¥152,194,150. Price action displayed a strong rally followed by a consolidation phase, suggesting possible exhaustion in both bullish and bearish momentum.

Structure and formations showed a key bullish breakout early in the session, followed by a bearish pullback that tested support levels at ¥24,800. A notable candlestick formation was a bearish dark cloud cover near the close of the 15-minute candles, with the close falling below the mid-point of the prior bullish candle. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above the 50-period line, indicating short-term bullish momentum that reversed by the latter half of the session. The pair appears to be forming a possible short-term double-top pattern around the ¥25,220 level, suggesting potential bearish continuation if this level breaks.

Momentum indicators confirmed the reversal in sentiment. The RSI reached an overbought level above 70 during the rally before dropping into oversold territory during the correction, suggesting a potential equilibrium phase. The MACD histogram turned negative and remained below the signal line, indicating waning bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a recent volatility contraction, with the price hovering near the upper band during the rally, and then retracting into the lower half of the band. This suggests the market may be entering a period of consolidation before the next directional move.

Volume spiked during the early rally but dropped significantly during the consolidation phase, which could indicate a lack of follow-through in buying pressure. Turnover confirmed the volume patterns, with the highest notional value concentrated during the ¥24,061–¥25,220 price surge. Divergence between price and volume suggests caution for near-term traders. Fibonacci retracements applied to the ¥24,016–¥25,220 swing identified the ¥24,800 level (61.8%) as a key support area, which held during the pullback.

The backtest hypothesis involves a rule-based strategy for entries and exits based on candlestick patterns. Assuming a Bullish Engulfing pattern is detected (as previously identified between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-08), the exit strategy must be clearly defined. A preferred approach would be to use pivot highs/lows as the next significant support or resistance level. This method allows for dynamic, price-action-driven exits that align with the natural ebb and flow of the market. Specifically, a sell (exit) signal could be triggered when the next daily candle closes below the most recent pivot-low or above the most recent pivot-high, depending on the direction of the trade. This aligns with the technical narrative presented above and avoids arbitrary or time-based constraints that could distort performance. For consistency, the pivot levels can be calculated as follows: Pivot High = (High + Low + Close)/3; Resistance 1 = Pivot High + (Pivot High – Pivot Low); Support 1 = Pivot High – (Pivot High – Pivot Low). Once this rule is formalized, the backtest can be run for BLSH.N using the given time frame.