Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) on 2025-11-01

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• 24-hour Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) moved from 29031 to 28787, with a high of 29219 and low of 28376.
• Volume was uneven, peaking at 172,371 yen in early morning ET, but turnover diverged with bearish momentum late in the session.
• RSI showed overbought conditions early, then moved into oversold territory late, signaling possible mean reversion.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price dropped, indicating rising volatility and uncertainty.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early morning, followed by a weak bullish reversal at 28787, hinting at indecision.

The Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) pair opened at 29031 on 2025-10-31 at 12:00 ET and closed at 28787 on 2025-11-01 at the same time. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 29219 and a low of 28376. Total volume traded was 1,852.371 SOL, with a notional turnover of 53,193,879 yen. The price action revealed a bearish bias, particularly during the early morning hours when the market gapped down sharply.

Structure & Formations

The key resistance level appears to be around 29000, which was tested twice before breaking decisively in the early hours of the session. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 16:00 and 16:15 ET, signaling strong bearish conviction. Later, a small bullish reversal pattern emerged near 28787, but it lacked follow-through, indicating ongoing seller dominance. A potential support zone forms at 28500–28600, where the pair has bounced multiple times over the 24-hour window.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price late in the session, confirming bearish momentum. The 50-period MA is currently at 28875, and the 20-period MA is at 28750. These indicators suggest that the pair is likely to continue testing lower support levels in the near term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 28950, and the 200-period MA is at 28700. The price is currently below both, signaling bearish alignment with broader trend indicators.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative late in the session, and the histogram showed a shrinking bullish divergence, indicating fading buying pressure. The RSI dropped from overbought levels (exceeding 70) early in the session to below 30 by 11:45 ET, signaling oversold conditions and a potential bounce. However, the RSI divergence from price action—particularly in the late morning—suggests that buyers may be hesitant to defend key support levels. This combination of bearish momentum and weak RSI recovery could point to a continuation of the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands saw a notable expansion during the late morning and early afternoon, driven by the sharp decline in price. The lower band sits around 28376, aligning with the 24-hour low, while the upper band was touched at 29000. Price is currently near the lower band, indicating an oversold condition that may not immediately reverse without strong bullish confirmation. Traders may want to watch the 28700–28800 range for signs of stabilization.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated in early morning and late-night trading, with a sharp spike at 16:00 ET when the bearish engulfing pattern formed. Notional turnover increased in tandem with the volume, but late in the session, turnover diverged from price, with weaker buying interest despite price recovery near 28787. This divergence raises questions about the strength of the short-term bounce and hints that further consolidation is likely.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level is at 28845, which the price briefly tested before continuing lower. The 38.2% level is at 29070, which was rejected twice. For the daily swing, the 61.8% retracement level is at 28625 and has served as a dynamic support area. The price currently appears to be approaching the 38.2% level of the recent downswing, suggesting possible resistance ahead if buyers emerge.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish RSI divergence and overbought-to-oversold reversal observed in this 24-hour period, a backtest of an “RSI-overbought sell” strategy could provide valuable insights. Applying a standard RSI(14) overbought threshold of 70 and a sell signal when the RSI crosses above 70, followed by a close when it falls below 50, could offer a practical way to test whether bearish momentum can be leveraged for short selling. Using close prices and including a 14-day period could provide a realistic evaluation of the strategy’s effectiveness from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-01. If confirmed, this approach could help traders optimize exits from overextended long positions during similar market conditions.