Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – 2025-10-24

• Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) fell 5.3% in 24 hours, closing at 28,969 after a sharp selloff from 29,663
• Price broke key support levels at 29,300 and 29,100, with heavy bearish momentum into the close
• Volatility spiked midday, with a 2.7% intraday range, but volume surged only in early recovery attempts
• RSI hit oversold territory near 28, suggesting potential short-term rebound, but trend remains bearish
• Bollinger Bands tightened during the morning low, then expanded sharply as the pair dropped to a 7-day low

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-24, Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) closed at 28,969, down from an open of 29,268 and a high of 30,046 earlier in the day. The 24-hour low reached 28,900, with a total volume of 3,736.29 and a turnover of 108,297,000 JPY. The market has shown clear bearish bias, with a breakdown below key moving averages and a bearish divergence in momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish breakdown below the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, with a clear rejection of the 29,300 level as support. A long bearish candle formed during the 14:30–15:00 ET session, closing at 29,068 after a 1.1% drop in that window. A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 29,062 was breached, reinforcing the bearish case. A potential bullish hammer pattern formed in the final hour of the 24-hour window, but it remains unconfirmed.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both closed bearish below price, confirming the downward trend. The 50-period line, which had acted as a temporary support near 29,400, was decisively breached during the afternoon. RSI closed at 27.9, signaling oversold conditions, while MACD showed a bearish crossover with a large negative histogram. The MACD line crossed below the signal line near 07:00 ET, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands tightened during the early morning hours as price consolidated near 29,500, but widened sharply following the breakdown. By midday, the bands had expanded to a 2.7% range (upper at ~29,650, lower at ~29,400), and price closed near the lower band. A further widening suggests increased volatility and could indicate a continuation of the bearish move or a short-term bounce.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked during the afternoon low, particularly between 13:45–14:15 ET when price dropped from 29,595 to 29,345. However, the volume was not proportionate to the magnitude of the move, suggesting some degree of divergences or weaker conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover reached a peak of 108,297,000 JPY by 14:30 ET, but volume started to taper off as the close approached, which could indicate exhaustion in the bearish thrust.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels were tested and failed to hold. The 61.8% level at 29,062 was breached with little resistance during the 14:30–15:00 ET session, and the 38.2% level at 29,300 was rejected twice. A potential short-term bounce could find resistance at 29,362 (23.6% retracement of the intraday swing), but a failure to break back above 29,500 would likely extend the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish divergence observed in both RSI and MACD, combined with the failure to hold key support levels, presents an attractive entry for short-term bearish positions. A backtest strategy could target a short entry near 29,000 with a stop above 29,350 and a target at 28,800, using the 15-minute timeframe for exits. The 20-period MA could act as a trailing stop. This setup would benefit from the continued bearish momentum and the breakdown in the daily structure.