Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – 2025-10-08

• • •
• Solana/Yen traded in a 24-hour range of 33,334.0 to 34,154.0, closing near key resistance with rising volume.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with RSI suggesting overbought conditions and bearish divergence in volume.
• A bullish breakout attempt stalled near 34,000, followed by consolidation and bearish correction into early morning.
• Bollinger Bands show increased width and price near the upper band early, then recentering toward the midline by close.

The 24-hour session for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) saw a volatile range from 33,334.0 to 34,154.0, with the price opening at 33,584.0 and closing at 33,879.0. Total trading volume reached 4,169.1 units, and notional turnover came in at approximately ¥135.5 million. The market displayed a bearish bias in the final hours, with price falling below key support levels after an earlier attempt to break out above 34,000.

Structure and formations indicate several key levels. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 21:00 and 21:15 ET, signaling potential bearish momentum. Resistance levels appear clustered around 34,000–34,100, while support is evident near 33,600 and 33,400. A doji-like formation at 05:45 ET suggests indecision and potential reversal. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price recentering after a brief overbought RSI spike.

MACD shows a narrowing histogram late in the session, pointing to fading momentum, while RSI peaked above 70 before rolling back toward the midline. Bollinger Bands widened overnight, reflecting heightened volatility, with price settling near the upper band before reversing to close near the midline. Volume spiked during the early morning hours, but it began to diverge from price as bearish pressure increased, raising questions about the sustainability of short-term gains.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 15-minute swing high (34,154.0) to the swing low (33,480.0) show 61.8% at 33,784.0, where price found temporary support. The 38.2% level at 33,924.0 acted as resistance earlier in the session. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest a potential target for the next bearish leg near 33,250, with a key pivot at 33,650.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy could involve shorting on a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (33,784.0) with a stop just above the 38.2% level (33,924.0), and a target at the 50% level (33,817.0) or lower. This approach would aim to capitalize on the bearish momentum seen in the session, especially if confirmed by a divergence in RSI and volume. Given the current setup, this strategy may be more effective when applied to early morning 15-minute bars, where volatility and order flow were strongest.

Looking ahead, Solana/Yen may test the 33,400 level as a critical support, with a breach potentially leading to a test of the 33,250 level. Traders should remain cautious of potential reversal signals near key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels, particularly in the context of diverging volume and overbought RSI readings. As always, position sizing and risk management remain essential amid the high volatility.