Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) on 2025-10-07

• Price declined from 35,520 to 33,844, closing -4.17% lower than open.
• Strong bearish momentum visible on RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility expanded, with 35,684–33,551 range seen on 15-min chart.
• Bollinger Bands show price retesting lower band with high volume.
• Key Fibonacci support at 33,820 tested, with potential for further bearish continuation.

Opening Summary and Context

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 35,412 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at 33,844 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07, with a high of 35,684 and a low of 33,551 during the period. The pair experienced a total volume of 14,024.15 and a notional turnover of approximately ¥498.5 million. The price action suggests bearish exhaustion in the final hours, with volatility and volume both rising sharply as price approached key Fibonacci and Bollinger levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a series of bearish engulfing patterns in the 34,000–35,600 range, especially between 05:00 and 08:30 ET. Notable support levels include 34,000, 33,820, and the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 33,820. A doji formed at 33,750–33,775, suggesting indecision and potential for a short-term rebound or breakdown. Resistance levels at 34,500 and 34,900 remain intact, with no significant bullish confirmation.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart show a strong bearish crossover, with prices closing below both. The MACD histogram is negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 27, signaling oversold territory, but divergence in the price and RSI suggests further downside may be expected before a possible bounce. A 50-period MA on the daily chart reinforces the bearish bias, with Solana/Yen well below the 200-period MA, indicating a strong downtrend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the 24-hour window, with the upper band peaking at 35,684 and the lower band dropping to 33,551. Price retested the lower band multiple times, most recently at 33,775, with increased volume and bearish continuation. The 20-period Bollinger bands show the price trading near the bottom of the channel, consistent with a continuation of the downtrend. A contraction in the bands earlier in the morning hinted at a potential breakout or breakdown.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged in the 04:45–06:00 ET timeframe, coinciding with a breakdown below 34,500 and a push toward 33,800. The highest turnover occurred during the 08:15–08:30 ET session, with a 345.913 volume spike on the 15-minute chart as price dropped to 33,775. While volume and price action are aligned in the short-term bearish move, a divergence could appear if prices rebound but volume fails to confirm the reversal. Turnover remains elevated, indicating strong interest from both bulls and bears, though the latter appears to be gaining control.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 35,684–33,551 move shows key levels at 34,879 (23.6%), 34,484 (38.2%), and 33,820 (61.8%). The price tested the 61.8% level at 33,820 twice, with bearish continuation in both cases. The daily chart also shows a 61.8% retracement level at 34,850, which acted as a key resistance in the morning session. A breakdown below 33,630 could trigger a move toward the 33,300–33,200 zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below the 50-period moving average, with a stop just above the 23.6% Fibonacci level. A target could be placed at the 61.8% level or lower, depending on the volatility. Given the RSI divergence and strong bearish momentum, this setup could be triggered during the next major pullback above 34,400, with an exit on a close above 34,800 to protect profits.