Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) as of 2025-10-04

• Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) closed near intraday lows at 33854.0 after a bearish reversal from 34949.0 highs.
• Momentum weakened as RSI approached oversold territory and volume surged during the selloff.
• A key support level appears to be forming near 33500.0, with a bearish breakdown below 34000.0 likely.
• Bollinger Bands show increasing volatility contraction, hinting at a potential breakout or breakdown.
• Divergence between price and volume suggests weakening bear momentum, but trend continuation remains probable.

The Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) pair opened at 34464.0 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 34949.0 during the session. It closed at 33854.0 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, with a 24-hour trading range of 34949.0 to 33158.0. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 13,645.69 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥458.99 million (assuming unit price-weighted average). The price action shows a bearish reversal from prior highs.

Structure and price formations indicate that the 34000.0–34500.0 range may serve as a key support cluster. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 34300.0–34200.0, reinforcing the downward momentum. Doji candles near 34000.0 and 33900.0 suggest indecision and potential reversal signals, though bearish bias remains intact. A breakdown below 33500.0 could trigger further downside toward 33200.0 and 32900.0.

20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a steep bearish crossover, reinforcing the recent trend. The daily chart shows a longer-term bearish bias as the 50- and 200-period lines have diverged significantly. MACD remains in negative territory with a flattening histogram, signaling weakening bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory, reaching below 30 in the last few hours, which may hint at a potential short-term rebound, though the overall trend remains bearish. Bollinger Bands show a recent narrowing, indicating a potential breakout or breakdown in the near term. Price has been hovering near the lower band, consistent with increased bearish pressure.

Volume and notional turnover spiked during the 34949.0–33158.0 decline, suggesting heavy selling pressure. However, a divergence appears as price continued to fall while volume began to wane near the 33500.0 level, possibly signaling exhaustion. This could be a critical point to watch for a potential reversal or continuation of the downtrend.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 34949.0 high to the 33158.0 low show key levels at 34500.0 (23.6%), 34200.0 (38.2%), and 33750.0 (61.8%). The price has tested both 34200.0 and 33750.0 levels multiple times in the past 24 hours, with a breakdown below 33750.0 confirming a bearish continuation. The 33500.0 level, a previous support, could now act as a critical psychological floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position at the first bearish crossover of the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss above the most recent bullish candle high and a target near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the recent divergence in volume, a trailing stop could be employed to lock in profits as the trend continues. This approach would be most effective during periods of low volatility contraction, as seen in the Bollinger Band narrowing. The RSI dipping into oversold territory could also serve as a signal to reassess position size or exit if a short-term bounce materializes.