Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) on 2025-09-25

• SOLJPY opened at ¥32,014, dropped to a low of ¥30,036, and closed at ¥30,038—down 6.2% in 24 hours.
• Price action shows bearish momentum with a breakdown below 20-period MA and weak bullish retracement attempts.
• Volatility expanded overnight with a 200+ Yen range in last 6 hours, but volume did not confirm strong bearish sentiment.
• RSI at 29.5 suggests oversold conditions, but volume divergence raises question on sustainability of rebounds.
• Bollinger Bands indicate price near lower band, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce from ¥30,000 psychological level.

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at ¥32,014 at 12:00 ET − 1 and traded as low as ¥30,036 before closing at ¥30,038 at 12:00 ET. The pair experienced a 6.2% decline over the 24-hour period, with a total trading volume of 6,262.81 SOL and a notional turnover of ¥197.33 million. Price action shows a clear bearish bias with several failed attempts at bullish retracement, especially after breaking the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart.

The structure of the candlestick data reveals key levels: a strong support at ¥30,038, a previous resistance-turned-support at ¥31,300, and a prior high at ¥32,059. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:45 ET, followed by a doji at 04:15 ET, indicating indecision. The 20-period moving average (20SMA) at ¥31,489 and 50SMA at ¥31,700 were both breached to the downside, while the 50-day moving average (50DMA) at ¥31,820 provides a near-term bearish reference point.

MACD turned negative early in the session with a bearish crossover, confirming the downward bias. RSI fell into oversold territory by 05:15 ET, but volume failed to pick up meaningfully, suggesting weak conviction in rebounds. Bollinger Bands widened overnight, with price hovering near the lower band, signaling potential for a rebound in the ¥30,000–¥30,100 range. Volatility expansion is evident, but notional turnover remains flat, suggesting a lack of strong conviction in either direction.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the ¥32,059 high to ¥30,036 low highlight key psychological areas. The 38.2% retracement at ¥31,266 and 61.8% at ¥31,550 could serve as potential price ceilings on any bounce. The 50% level at ¥31,047 has already been tested and broken, with the current price sitting near the 61.8% retracement of the intra-day swing (¥32,059 to ¥30,216), which is ¥31,137—slightly above the current price. This suggests that a break below ¥30,038 could target the next support at ¥29,992.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable strategy for backtesting could involve entering short positions on a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern with volume confirmation and a stop just above the 20SMA. A target could be set at the next Fibonacci retracement level or support, using RSI and Bollinger Bands for momentum and volatility confirmation. Given the current price near the lower Bollinger Band and RSI in oversold territory, a reversal setup could also be tested with a long bias near ¥30,038–¥30,024. A 2:1 risk-reward ratio should be considered to balance aggressive trading with disciplined risk management.