Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – 2025-09-24

• SOLJPY opened at ¥32504, peaked at ¥32544, and closed 0.27% lower near ¥31845 after a bearish 24-hour consolidation.
• A sharp selloff from ¥32544 to ¥31636 emerged as a key bearish trend with a 3-hour breakdown of key support levels.
• RSI hit oversold territory below 30 and volume spiked below ¥1,200,000, signaling potential short-covering or reversal risks.
• A bullish rebound emerged after 07:00 ET, with price retesting ¥31351, but failed to break above ¥31590, indicating bearish control.
• Bollinger Bands tightened in the early morning, followed by a large expansion after ¥30800, reflecting heightened volatility.

The Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) pair opened at ¥32504 at 12:00 ET – 1 and peaked at ¥32544 during early trading. It closed at ¥31845 at 12:00 ET, with a total traded volume of 6,932.23 SOL and a notional turnover of ¥217,277,345. Over the last 24 hours, the price experienced a bearish reversal, dropping below key support levels and settling in a lower volatility range near ¥31800.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart reveals a broad bearish trend, with a critical breakdown at ¥32000 during the early afternoon. Notable patterns include a shooting star at ¥32544, a bearish engulfing pattern between ¥32500–32344, and a gravestone doji at ¥31988. These suggest strong selling pressure and potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. A bearish harami formed around ¥32064–32031 also signals caution ahead. Key support levels are currently at ¥31590, ¥31351, and ¥31200, while resistance lies at ¥31636, ¥31732, and ¥31800. A retest of the ¥31351 level may confirm bearish continuation or trigger a bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA have crossed bearishly, with the price currently trading well below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 100 and 200-period MAs, confirming a bearish trend. Price remains below the long-term average, indicating a continuation of bearish sentiment unless it reclaims ¥31800.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish during the early selloff, with a large negative histogram. The RSI hit oversold levels below 30, suggesting potential short-covering or a temporary bounce. However, the lack of a strong rebound suggests bearish dominance. Momentum indicators show a reacceleration in bearish strength between ¥31700–31500.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands experienced a period of contraction between 04:00 and 07:00 ET before expanding sharply as the price dropped to ¥30840. The current price is near the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions. A rebound above the midline at ¥31500 would indicate a temporary pullback rather than a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff from ¥32544 to ¥31636, with a large 15-minute volume of 630.89 SOLJPY at ¥30915. Notional turnover also increased significantly during the breakdown. The current volume is moderate but lacks confirmation for a bullish rebound. A divergence between price and volume could signal further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent ¥32544–31636 swing, key levels include 61.8% at ¥31903 and 38.2% at ¥32187. The price has retested the 61.8% level before, but failed to hold above it. A move below ¥31590 may trigger a 78.6% retracement target at ¥31400.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern or a breakdown below a key Fibonacci level, such as 61.8%. A stop-loss could be placed above the 38.2% retracement level, and a target set at the 78.6% level. This would align with the current bearish momentum and MACD divergence. Integrating volume spikes during the breakdown could further confirm the trade setup.