Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – 2025-09-14

• SOLJPY opened at 35320 and peaked at 36696 before settling at 36327.
• Strong 15-minute rally from 02:00–03:00 ET pushed price above 36500 for the first time in the 24-hour window.
• Volume surged during the 02:00–02:15 ET window with 436.723 contracts traded, signaling strong momentum.
• RSI showed overbought conditions during the mid-night peak but drifted back toward neutral by the 12:00 ET close.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the early morning hours, indicating increased volatility.

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 35320 on 2025-09-13 12:00 ET, reached a 24-hour high of 36696, and closed at 36327 as of 2025-09-14 12:00 ET. Total traded volume for the period was 10,000.961 (approx.) with a notional turnover of ~JPY 362,699,727, assuming average price.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at 35200 and 34800, with the price bouncing back off these levels on multiple 15-minute candles. A strong bullish engulfing pattern was observed at 02:00–02:15 ET, confirming a breakout above 36500. A doji candle at 02:45 ET indicated indecision after a strong push to 36635. Resistance appears to have formed near 36700 and 36900, with failed attempts to breach these levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA) moved above the 50-period SMA during the early morning surge, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. For daily timeframe analysis, the 50-period SMA remains above the 200-period SMA, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish despite the recent consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 02:00 ET and remained positive through much of the session, confirming the strength of the rally. RSI spiked above 70 during the peak at 02:15–02:30 ET, indicating overbought conditions. However, it has since pulled back to neutral territory (50–60), suggesting a potential pullback may be due.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands experienced a notable expansion during the 02:00–02:45 ET period, with price closing just below the upper band at 36696. This suggests a sharp increase in volatility and a potential reversal risk as the bands now appear to be widening after a brief contraction the previous evening. Price currently sits within the bands but closer to the upper band, signaling a potential overextension.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 02:00–02:15 ET window with 436.723 contracts traded, coinciding with the bullish engulfing pattern and a 15-minute high of 36417. Turnover followed suit, confirming the price action. However, volume declined sharply after the 03:00–03:15 ET window, indicating a waning of momentum after the initial breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from 35200 (low) to 36696 (high), the price has pulled back to the 61.8% level (approx. 36000). For the broader daily timeframe, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels appear to align with recent consolidation near 36300 and 36100, respectively, suggesting these could be critical near-term support areas.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy appears to align with the recent 15-minute bullish breakout pattern seen at 02:00–02:15 ET, where a strong move above key resistance (36500) was confirmed by both volume and technical indicators. A potential backtest hypothesis would involve entering long on a close above 36500, with a stop loss at 36200 and a target at 36900. This setup was confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and a MACD crossover, and the price held above 36300 during the 24-hour window, suggesting the setup could have been successful. Future tests could explore the effectiveness of this strategy in similar high-volatility environments with clear breakout patterns.