Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – 2025-09-13

• Price swung between 35206.0 and 36063.0 Yen, closing near 35367.0 Yen.
• High volatility and erratic momentum seen in MACD divergence and RSI overbought conditions.
• Volume spiked above 350 at 14:00 and 22:30 ET, aligning with large price swings.
• Bollinger Bands showed wide expansion, confirming increased market uncertainty.
• A deep pullback near 35300.0 and 35206.0 raised potential support levels for near-term buyers.

The Solana/Yen pair (SOLJPY) opened at 35360.0 Yen on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 36063.0 Yen during the session. It closed at 35367.0 Yen on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 12,571.01 SOL and total notional turnover was 426,804,959.25 Yen for the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a strong intraday reversal pattern, with a high of 36063.0 Yen followed by a sharp decline to 35206.0 Yen. Key support levels formed around 35300.0 and 35206.0 Yen, marked by multiple rejections and consolidation. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the top of the range, followed by a potential bullish reversal near 35400.0 Yen. A doji at 35253.0 Yen (21:15 ET) signaled indecision and a possible shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price oscillated above and below the 20SMA and 50SMA, showing no clear trend but increased volatility. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance during the early hours of the session. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA appear divergent, indicating potential bearish pressure for longer-term traders. Price closed slightly below the 100DMA, suggesting a weak near-term bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a bearish crossover with the signal line during the early afternoon, confirming a sell-off from 36000.0 Yen. The histogram diverged from the price action during the late evening, hinting at waning bearish momentum. RSI spiked to overbought levels above 70 at 01:15 ET before dropping into oversold territory at 04:45 ET. This rapid overbought-to-oversold transition suggested aggressive short-term selling and potential consolidation ahead.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded sharply between 22:30 ET and 01:00 ET as volatility surged from 35700.0 to 36063.0 Yen. Price remained in the upper band until a sell-off pushed it to the lower band at 04:00 ET. This wide band expansion indicates increased uncertainty and potential for further consolidation or a breakout. The closing price near the lower band at 35367.0 Yen suggests a possible near-term floor, but with potential for further retests.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 345.833 SOL at 22:30 ET and again at 418.988 SOL at 14:00 ET, coinciding with large price swings. These spikes confirmed strong price action but also suggested exhaustion. Notional turnover mirrored volume, showing a peak of 13,493,100 Yen during the 14:00 ET period. Divergence between volume and price was observed during the late afternoon, where volume declined despite price continuing to fall, indicating weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 35206.0–36063.0 Yen swing, the 61.8% level is around 35632.0 Yen, which coincided with a major retracement and consolidation phase. The 38.2% level (35536.0 Yen) acted as a minor resistance during the early hours. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of a recent monthly swing at 35380.0 Yen has now been tested, suggesting a potential turning point for the near-term bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy focuses on detecting divergences between price and RSI to signal potential reversals, particularly during overbought and oversold extremes. For example, the sharp RSI drop below 30 at 04:45 ET following a prior overbought condition aligns with a classic divergence setup that this strategy would have flagged. When combined with a moving average crossover on the 15-minute chart (as seen at 21:15 ET), the signal could have been used to initiate a long position with a stop below the 35253.0 Yen level. Given the recent volatility and confirmed support levels, this strategy appears well-suited to capture short-term mean-reversion opportunities on SOLJPY.