Market Overview: Solana/Tether USDt (SOLUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis for 2025-09-06

• SOLUSDT opened at $203.91 and closed at $201.26, with a 24-hour high of $205.55 and low of $201.01.
• Price consolidated within a $201–$205 range, with bearish momentum intensifying after 19:30 ET.
• Total volume hit 696,837.73 SOL, and notional turnover reached $142,214,755, showing high liquidity.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $205.55, confirming pressure on key resistance.
• RSI fell below 30 into oversold territory, signaling potential for a rebound or continued bearish bias.

The pair opened at $203.91 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET, rose to a high of $205.55, dropped to a low of $201.01, and closed at $201.26 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-06. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 696,837.73 SOL, with a notional turnover of $142,214,755, indicating active trading and moderate volatility.

Structure & Formations

The past 24 hours showed a bearish bias after a brief bullish breakout around $205.55, which was quickly rejected by the market. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of the day, confirming a lack of buying interest. Key support levels emerged around $202.00, where the price found a temporary floor multiple times. A doji formed at $203.00, suggesting indecision, but the subsequent bearish trend invalidated that hesitation. The 201.01 level acted as a short-term floor, with potential for consolidation or a rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, signaling a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA (15-min) sat around $203.20 at 12:00 ET, while the 100-period MA was at $203.85 and the 200-period MA at $204.45, all of which were above the current close of $201.26. This suggests a bearish deviation from trend, with price well below all major averages, reinforcing the downside bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative early in the session and remained bearish, with the histogram shrinking slightly in the last few hours, indicating a possible slowdown in the downward move. RSI dropped below 30, entering oversold territory, suggesting the price may consolidate or even retest key support levels like $201.01 before resuming its downward bias. However, the lack of follow-through on the rally attempts suggests caution is warranted.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the breakout and subsequent pullback, with the bands stretching between $201.41 and $205.55. The price closed near the lower band at $201.26, which is a strong signal of potential support. However, a sustained move below $201.01 could trigger further downward volatility and a retest of the $200.00 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish breakout from $205.55, with several 15-minute candles showing volumes exceeding 50,000 SOL. Notional turnover also surged during the price decline, confirming the bearish move. A divergence between volume and price appeared around 06:00 ET when volume dipped but the price continued to fall, suggesting fading momentum. However, the price stabilized after a strong volume bar at 05:30 ET, indicating renewed selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 201.01–205.55 swing, the 61.8% retracement level lies at $203.09, which the price briefly tested multiple times. The 38.2% level at $204.30 also acted as a resistance. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from a larger swing (e.g., recent highs and lows) would likely provide context for potential near-term support and resistance levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy focuses on identifying bearish reversal patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing, doji) near key resistance levels, with confirmation through MACD divergence and RSI oversold conditions. Based on this session’s data, the bearish engulfing at $205.55 and the subsequent RSI oversold condition align well with the strategy’s entry criteria. A short entry with a stop above $205.55 and a target at $200.00 could have captured a significant portion of the downward move. The strategy would benefit from additional volume and divergence analysis to confirm the strength of the pattern.