Market Overview for Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-11-03

• SOLUSDT opened at $183.53, peaked at $189.13, and closed at $168.21 amid heightened volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near the peak, followed by a sharp correction into Bollinger Band contraction.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, while volume surged during the decline, signaling possible exhaustion.
• Fibonacci levels at 61.8% ($179.33) and 38.2% ($185.63) showed mixed resistance, with price failing to reclaim either.
• MACD turned negative, confirming bearish momentum, but no clear breakout from key support levels emerged yet.

SOLUSDT opened at $183.53 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $168.21 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. During the 24-hour window, the pair surged to a high of $189.13 and dropped to a low of $166.14. Total volume amounted to 5.26 million SOL, with a notional turnover of $894.5 million. The price action reflects a volatile session shaped by large-volume corrections and mixed momentum signals.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels emerged around $185.50 and $189.13, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed at the top of the rally. A deep doji at $188.77 also indicated indecision during the early part of the session. On the downside, support appears to be consolidating near $175.0 and $168.21, the latter of which has held during a sharp late-session decline. The bearish bias remains intact, but a bounce near 38.2% Fibonacci ($185.63) has yet to confirm a reversal.

Support and Resistance (15-Min Chart)

- Key Resistance: $185.50, $189.13
- Key Support: $175.0, $168.21
- Notable Pattern: Bearish Engulfing at $188.78–$189.13, signaling exhaustion.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 SMA in a bearish “death cross” formation, reinforcing the downward trend. The 50 EMA and 200 SMA on the daily chart have also diverged, with price failing to close above the 50 SMA for the second consecutive day. This divergence suggests that the bearish momentum may persist unless a strong reversal pattern emerges.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative during the afternoon session, confirming the bearish momentum as the price dropped below the 185.50 level. The RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory near $166.14, but failed to generate a significant rebound, indicating possible exhaustion rather than a short-term bottom. A closing bounce above $175.0 could trigger a partial correction but may not be enough to reverse the broader bearish trend.

MACD and RSI Signal Interpretation

- MACD: Negative divergence suggests ongoing bearish pressure.- RSI: Oversold conditions are in place but lack a strong follow-through.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the mid-session rally, pushing the upper band to $189.13. The subsequent sell-off compressed the bands, with the lower band reaching $166.14. Price closed near the lower band, indicating potential exhaustion on the downside. A contraction in band width suggests a potential breakout scenario, but direction remains uncertain without a clear break of key levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline following the bearish engulfing pattern, with a peak of 702,438 SOL traded in the 15-minute candle closing at $167.93. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, reflecting heightened selling pressure. However, a divergence between price and volume during the late session suggests reduced conviction in the bearish move, with volume declining as price approached $168.21. This may hint at a possible short-term pause in the sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high at $189.13 and low at $166.14, key levels include:- 61.8%: $179.33 – failed to hold, reinforcing bearish momentum.- 50%: $177.64 – also broken during the sharp correction.- 38.2%: $185.63 – showed initial resistance but was quickly invalidated.

The price has tested and fallen below all key Fibonacci levels, suggesting a deeper correction into the $165.0 range could be in play unless a strong reversal candle forms.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern, identified and acted upon in the analysis, is central to a tested shorting strategy on SOLUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03. Over 184 events, the strategy utilized a 5% stop-loss and 10% take-profit framework with a 30-day holding horizon. Despite its traditional bearish significance, the pattern showed mixed performance—delivering a cumulative average return of +11.65%, outperforming the benchmark, but with a relatively modest win-rate of 55.6% on day 30. The optimal returns were observed between 27–30 trading days post-signal, suggesting a medium-term bearish bias may still hold if confirmed. However, the data underscores that this pattern is not a reliable standalone short signal in the current environment, particularly when used without additional confirmation from volume or momentum indicators.