Market Overview: Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) 24-Hour Performance Analysis

Summary
• SOLUSDT experienced a volatile 24-hour session, with price dropping to 148.95 before bouncing back to 161.83.
• High volatility and volume surges suggest active short-term positioning and possible trend uncertainty.
• RSI and MACD signal mixed momentum, with potential overbought conditions emerging at the close.

Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) opened at 158.21 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 161.83 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 162.09 and a low of 145.85. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 6,014,684.80 with a notional turnover of $959,880,636.00. The pair’s price action displayed multiple intraday reversals, including a notable bearish swing from 158.26 to 148.95 followed by a strong bullish recovery.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a series of bearish and bullish engulfing patterns, particularly around 20:30–21:45 ET and 14:00–16:00 ET, indicating shifting sentiment. A key support zone formed between 153.50–155.00, with 148.95 acting as a critical psychological floor. On the upside, 156.25–158.25 appears to be forming as a resistance cluster, with the 160.00 level now showing early signs of resistance after a brief test and rebound. A doji near 155.03 at the 12:00 AM ET time point suggests indecision and could be a precursor to a reversal or continuation depending on the following candles.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA was above the 50-period line for most of the session, indicating a generally bullish short-term bias, though the two lines began to converge in the late morning as bearish pressure emerged. On the daily chart, the price ended above the 50-day SMA, but the 100-day and 200-day lines remained untested during this 24-hour window. This suggests that while short-term momentum favors bulls, the longer-term trend is still ambiguous.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line early in the session, confirming a short-term bullish bias, but later diverged as price corrected sharply in the late evening. RSI showed overbought conditions near the 70 level in the final two hours of the session, which may signal caution for further immediate gains. Conversely, a brief dip below the 30 level in the late evening suggested oversold conditions, potentially offering a buying opportunity for some traders. The interplay between the two indicators suggests a volatile and possibly range-bound market in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained high throughout the session, with the Bollinger Bands widening significantly after the sharp sell-off from 158.00 to 148.95. The price spent a considerable portion of the session near the lower band, particularly during the 20:30–21:30 ET window, but then surged back toward the middle band and even approached the upper band in the final two hours. This behavior indicates that volatility may have peaked, but the stretched price range suggests potential for either a continuation or a retracement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged dramatically during the key price drop from 153.20 to 148.95, with a 562,064.081 volume spike on the 20:30 ET candle, confirming the bearish move. However, volume during the subsequent bullish reversal was relatively lighter, suggesting weaker conviction. This volume divergence could indicate potential for a consolidation phase or even a short-term reversal. Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, with the heaviest turnover seen during the sharp price corrections.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent bearish swing from 158.26 to 148.95, the price found support at the 61.8% (153.50) and 78.6% (156.35) levels. During the final bullish rally, price briefly touched the 161.8% extension level before retracing slightly, indicating possible exhaustion in the short-term bullish momentum. These retracement levels may serve as key watchpoints for traders assessing the pair’s potential for further upside or a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

To analyze momentum-driven strategies using historical RSI-14 values, a valid ticker symbol is required. If the ETF symbol "HOLD.P" cannot be located, alternative tickers or equities must be provided to continue. Once a valid ticker is available, we can extract the RSI-14 series, identify oversold and overbought conditions, and back-test entry/exit signals. This will allow us to assess the performance of the strategy from 2022-01-01 to today, evaluating its potential as a momentum-based trading tool.

The next 24 hours could see a continuation of the recent bullish momentum if the 160.00–162.00 resistance zone breaks convincingly, though volume must confirm this move to avoid a false breakout. Alternatively, a pullback to the 155.00–156.00 range may occur, especially if RSI fails to stay above the 50 level for long. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains high, and sharp corrections could occur without clear warning signs.