Market Overview for Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) - 2025-11-07

Summary
• Price opened at $155.23, reached a high of $158.66, and closed at $153.80.
• Volatility and volume surged in the afternoon, with a sharp correction overnight.
• A bearish divergence appeared in RSI and volume during late trading hours.
• Strong resistance at $157.50 and support at $154.00 were tested multiple times.
• Bollinger Bands indicate a recent volatility expansion after a period of consolidation.

Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) opened at $155.23 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $153.80 on 2025-11-07 at the same time. The pair reached a high of $158.66 and a low of $151.90 during the 24-hour period. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 2,684,119.74 SOL, and the notional turnover was $416,233,938.66.

Key support levels are forming around $154.00–$154.40, while resistance appears to cluster at $157.50–$158.00. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $158.62, which was followed by a sharp pullback. A doji near $156.00 at 01:45 ET suggests indecision and potential reversal. These patterns, in conjunction with a rising price and declining volume, may indicate a short-term topping process.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging, with the price hovering slightly above the 50-period line. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period MAs are nearly aligned, while the 200-period MA lingers below the current price. The asset remains in a bullish trend but appears to be losing near-term momentum as the shorter-term MAs begin to flatten.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI reached overbought territory in the early evening (61.8–63.2) but has since fallen below 50, indicating weakening momentum. The MACD crossed into negative territory after 01:00 ET, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion after a period of contraction, suggesting renewed volatility. Price has oscillated between the upper and lower bands, suggesting high volatility with no clear directional bias.

Volume and Divergence

Trading volume spiked during the afternoon and early evening, with the largest 15-minute volume occurring at 19:30 ET. However, volume has declined sharply overnight as price dipped below $155. A bearish divergence between price and volume in the last 4 hours indicates weakening conviction in the downtrend. While volume remains strong relative to earlier in the day, it is not confirming the recent price drop, suggesting the move may be losing steam.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the recent high of $158.66 to the low of $151.90, key Fibonacci levels include 61.8% at $155.18 and 38.2% at $157.12. The price has found support and resistance near these levels on multiple occasions. The current close at $153.80 suggests the 50% level at $155.28 may be the next critical test in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Bullish Engulfing strategy, tested on SOLUSDT from 2022–01–01 to 2025–11–07 with a 3-day holding window, shows a win rate of 56.8% and an average return of +1.87% versus a benchmark of +0.40%. While this suggests potential value, the results are not statistically significant at conventional levels. This aligns with the current technical environment, where bullish momentum is mixed with signs of consolidation. Investors should consider extending the holding period or incorporating volatility filters to improve risk-adjusted returns.