Market Overview for Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT): 2025-10-12

• SOLUSDT opened at $183.57, peaked at $189.62, and closed near $191.23 on strong late-day volume.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged mid-day before a sharp rally pushed price above key resistance.
• Momentum turned bullish with RSI surging from oversold to overbought territory in final hours.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with a 4.7% range and Bollinger Band widening confirming the move.
• Volume and turnover surged during the final 15-minute candle, confirming strength in the upward move.

The Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) pair opened at $183.57 on October 11 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of $189.62, fell to a low of $177.56, and closed at $191.23 at 12:00 ET on October 12. The 24-hour notional turnover was approximately $15,089,755 (calculated from cumulative volume of 79,233.31 SOL at an average of ~$190.00), while total volume traded was 79,233.31 SOL, showing a strong price rally toward the end of the session.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the past 24 hours displayed a clear bullish reversal after a mid-day consolidation phase. A sharp decline occurred between 19:30 and 19:45 ET (10:30–10:45 UTC), where the candle closed at $177.80 after a $2.43 drop. This was followed by a strong rebound and a bullish engulfing pattern at 20:15 ET (11:15 UTC), which marked the start of a sustained upward move. The final 15-minute candle ended the day at $191.23, forming a long upper wick and confirming strong buyers at the close. Key support levels observed during the session included $180.00 and $177.56, with $190.00 acting as a new dynamic resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average moved sharply upward in the final 60 minutes, crossing above the 50-period line and confirming a bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average appears to be acting as dynamic support, with price staying above both the 100 and 200-period lines for the majority of the session. This suggests the pair is currently in a bullish phase with strong short-term momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a positive crossover during the final hours of the session, with the histogram expanding as price surged higher, indicating strong bullish momentum. The RSI moved into overbought territory (above 70) during the last 45 minutes, suggesting short-term overextension but not signaling an immediate reversal. This aligns with the strong volume and closing price action, indicating buyers remain in control.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility significantly expanded as the price moved from the mid-180s to the high of $191.23. The Bollinger Bands widened during the afternoon, with the price moving from within the lower band to closing near the upper band. This expansion typically indicates a breakout phase, and given the volume confirmation, the move appears to be legitimate rather than a false signal.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume was relatively subdued during the morning consolidation but spiked during the bearish breakdown at 19:30 ET (10:30 UTC). However, the most notable spike occurred during the final 15-minute candle (12:00 ET), where volume surged to 122,825.155 SOL with a notional turnover of $23,251,125. This confirms strong accumulation and distribution activity, particularly as price moved through key levels. No significant divergence was observed between price and volume, supporting the validity of the bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the intra-day swing from $177.56 to $189.62, the 61.8% retracement level is around $183.65, which acted as a minor support during the consolidation phase. The 100% retracement level, or the high of the move, is at $189.62, which was followed by a continued upward move, suggesting buyers are willing to pay above the Fibonacci target. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from recent bearish swings appears to align with the current support at $190.00, which may continue to influence short-term price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described aims to identify bullish breakout setups using a combination of moving averages, RSI, and volume confirmation. A potential setup would involve a long entry when price breaks above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with RSI confirming momentum above 50 and a surge in volume. Using the current session as a case study, the strategy could have triggered a long entry around 20:15 ET (11:15 UTC), where the bullish engulfing pattern formed and RSI moved above 50. A stop-loss could have been placed just below the consolidation range at $180.00, and the target would have aligned with the $189.62 Fibonacci level. Given the confirmed breakout and volume confirmation, this strategy appears to have strong potential, particularly in volatile and trending conditions.