Market Overview for Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) — 2025-10-11

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• SOLUSDT opened at $211.18, peaked at $213.56, and closed at $183.85 amid bearish momentum.
• Price dropped below key support at $206.5, forming bearish engulfing patterns during key breakdowns.
• Volatility expanded sharply during midday ET, with turnover surging above $4.6M in a 15-minute window.
• RSI hit oversold levels (<30), while Bollinger Bands indicated a potential mean reversion setup. • Volume remains elevated on the downside, confirming bearish bias and potential for further consolidation.

Over the past 24 hours, Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) traded between $213.56 (high) and $168.79 (low), opening at $211.18 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closing at $183.85 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total traded volume reached 9.27M SOL with notional turnover of approximately $1.59B, indicating heightened bearish activity and significant on-chain pressure.
Structurally, the pair found key resistance around $211.53 and $209.72 but failed to hold, breaking below critical support levels including $206.5 and $193.0. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30–19:45 ET and confirmed the breakdown. A key doji appeared near $193.51, signaling exhaustion in the downward move. The 15-minute chart shows a potential target zone at $183–$185, aligned with 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements from the $213.56–$168.79 swing.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart have remained below price for most of the session, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA (a death cross) early in the session. The MACD histogram has remained negative with a recent narrowing, suggesting slowing bearish momentum. RSI has tested oversold territory multiple times, hinting at potential rebounds, though bearish control is still strong. A close above $190.00 could trigger a MACD crossover back into positive territory, indicating a potential short-term rebound.

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the breakdown, with price trading near the lower band, indicating high volatility. Volatility may now contract as the move nears exhaustion, potentially setting up a pullback. Volume on the downside has remained elevated, with notable spikes during the 19:30–19:45 ET and 21:00–21:15 ET sessions. These spikes coincided with sharp price drops, indicating strong bearish participation. No significant divergence in volume and price was observed, so bearish continuation remains valid for now.

Fibonacci Retracements and Setup for Rebound

Key Fibonacci levels from the $213.56–$168.79 swing include 38.2% at $193.00 and 61.8% at $185.00. The price has stalled near the 61.8% level, aligning with the recent consolidation. A potential bullish reversal could emerge if the price breaks above $190.00 with increased volume, as this would invalidate the current bearish thesis. However, the 200-period daily moving average remains far above current levels, suggesting long-term bearish bias continues.

Looking ahead, a potential short-term rebound may emerge if the price finds support around $185.00 and $183.00, but further bearish consolidation into $175.00 remains a key risk. Investors should monitor for volume confirmation and bearish engulfing patterns on the daily timeframe. A bullish breakout above $193.00 with increased volume may signal a short-term bounce, but this remains speculative.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish exhaustion and oversold RSI readings, a potential bounce from the $183–$185 support zone could be backtested using a strategy that enters a long position on a bullish crossover of 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with a stop-loss placed below the most recent swing low. This setup would aim to capture a short-term rebound driven by mean reversion and order-block accumulation. The hypothesis would also include a trailing stop to lock in gains if the price shows sustained strength above $190.00. The strategy's validity depends on volume confirmation and the absence of further bearish engulfing patterns.