Market Overview for Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) declined from $214.97 to $201.35, reflecting bearish momentum amid high volatility.
• Price action showed multiple breakdowns below key moving averages, with volume surging during downward moves.
• MACD and RSI confirmed bearish divergence, with RSI reaching oversold levels around 201.2–200.9.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion as volatility spiked, with price near the lower band.
• A key support level at $200.69 was tested, with Fibonacci retracements indicating possible bounce or continuation risks.

At 12:00 ET–1 on September 24, 2025, Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) opened at $214.79 and traded as high as $215.47 before reaching an intraday low of $201.76 by 10:00 AM. The price closed at $201.35 as of 12:00 ET on September 25. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,180,383.25, and notional turnover reached approximately $434,869,438. The asset remains in a bearish phase, marked by multiple breakdowns and declining momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours displayed a clear downtrend, with multiple bearish candlestick patterns including shooting stars and hanging men, particularly between 19:30 ET and 00:45 ET. A key support level around $202.6–200.9 held briefly before breaking down. The price appears to be testing a secondary support zone near $200.69, with a potential bounce or further breakdown possible depending on volume confirmation. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 04:30 and 04:45 ET, reinforcing the downward bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key price levels between 19:45 and 20:00 ET, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages have not yet aligned with the current downtrend, suggesting that the move could be part of a larger correction or consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has remained negative for the majority of the 24-hour period, with bearish divergence evident during price rallies. The RSI dipped below 30 during the 11:15–11:30 ET window, signaling oversold conditions. However, this has not triggered a reversal, suggesting strong bearish conviction. A bearish crossover in the MACD at 03:30 ET further reinforced the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a recent expansion following the sharp decline from $215.47 to $201.76, indicating increased volatility. Price has remained near or below the lower band, with a potential test of the lower boundary expected as the $200.69 level is approached. A contraction in band width could precede a potential bounce or another wave of selling.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key breakdown moments, particularly between 03:30 and 04:45 ET, confirming the bearish sentiment. However, turnover diverged slightly during a brief 08:00–08:15 ET rally, indicating a lack of strong buyer participation. High volume during bearish closes supports the idea of capitulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $215.47 to $201.76, the 38.2% level aligns near $210.46 and the 61.8% level near $207.15. The 100% level at $201.76 was tested briefly before the price moved lower. Daily retracements from the recent high suggest $200.69 could act as a final support before a larger leg down.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when the price breaks below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish divergence in the RSI and a shooting star or hanging man pattern. Stop-loss levels can be set above the nearest resistance, and take-profit targets can be based on Fibonacci retracement levels. Given the current alignment of indicators, this strategy would have entered short positions multiple times in the past 24 hours, potentially capturing most of the downward move. Further testing on historical data would confirm its robustness across different volatility regimes.