Market Overview for Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) on 2025-09-15

• SOLUSDT opened at $244.03 and traded between $231.77 and $248.45 before closing at $236.46
• Price broke down from a 24-hour high of $248.45 and saw a bearish engulfing pattern in early NY session
• RSI hit 67 and declined, suggesting waning bullish momentum while Bollinger Bands expanded
• Volume surged during the breakdown to $231.77 with a turnover spike in the 07:45–08:45 ET range
• Fibonacci levels suggest possible bounce at $235.5–236.5 or further test of $231.00 support

SOLUSDT opened at $244.03 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14 and closed at $236.46 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15. The pair reached a high of $248.45 and a low of $231.77 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 2,094,406.19 SOL, with a notional turnover of $518,169,827. The price action reflects a strong bearish bias with several key breakdowns and reversal signals.

Structure & Formations

The price action for the past 24 hours featured multiple key breakdowns, most notably the bearish engulfing pattern at 07:45 ET on 2025-09-15, where the candle opened at $239.72 and closed at $237.47, breaking below the prior candle’s body. This pattern is typically bearish and suggests a continuation of the downward trend. A key support level is forming near $235.50, as evidenced by the bounce from $231.77 and the consolidation at that level. A key resistance to watch is at $243.46, where a bearish reversal occurred earlier in the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both show a bearish bias, with the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA in the last 6 hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is at $240.85, while the 100-period and 200-period MAs are at $243.10 and $244.95 respectively, indicating the price is significantly below key long-term averages, reinforcing the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD shows a bearish crossover with the MACD line below the signal line and the histogram in negative territory, indicating a strong sell bias. RSI has moved from overbought territory (above 60) to neutral levels, with a current reading of 58. This suggests the selling pressure is easing, but momentum is still bearish. The MACD histogram is contracting, indicating the bearish momentum may be losing steam.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly as the Bollinger Bands widened over the past 24 hours. The price has traded near the lower band for most of the session, indicating oversold conditions and heightened bearish momentum. The most recent expansion occurred during the breakdown to $231.77, suggesting a high level of uncertainty and risk among traders.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the breakdown to $231.77, with a 15-minute candle at 07:45 ET showing $190,682.32 in turnover, indicating strong conviction in the bearish move. There was also a notable volume increase at 04:30 ET, where the candle closed at $243.03 after a $0.65 decline. The volume and turnover patterns align with the price action, suggesting the breakdown was well-supported by selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from $231.77 to $248.45, key levels include 38.2% at $238.07 and 61.8% at $234.85. The price appears to be consolidating near the 61.8% level, which could act as a key support zone. A break below $234.85 could bring the 78.6% level at $231.00 into focus.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and RSI falls below 60. Exit the trade when the price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band or RSI rises above 50. A stop-loss is placed above the 20-period moving average. This strategy aims to capitalize on short-term bearish momentum and trend continuation, which aligns with the current price action of SOLUSDT. The key to success lies in managing risk and exiting before overbought conditions develop.