Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN): Volatility and Momentum Divergence

• SOLMXN tested key support near 2898 MXN, then reversed higher.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with a bullish breakout above 3000 MXN.
• Momentum diverged in late ET hours, with RSI approaching overbought levels.
• Volume surged during the 14:45–15:00 ET session, confirming the reversal.
• Bollinger Bands showed a prior contraction, followed by a sharp price expansion.

Opening Narrative

SOLMXN opened at 3004 MXN on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET. It reached a high of 3007 MXN and a low of 2898 MXN, closing at 3007 MXN. Total 24-hour volume was 12.186 SOL, with turnover of 36,657.6 MXN.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bullish reversal pattern during the 17:30–18:00 ET session, with a sharp drop from 3004 to 2899 MXN. A bearish trend ensued until late ET hours, when a large bullish candle formed at 14:45 ET, surging 77 MXN in a single session. This candle confirmed a breakout from prior resistance near 3000 MXN, with 2898 MXN acting as strong support. A bearish divergence appeared in the late session, suggesting a potential pullback.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Short-term 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover during the breakout. The 50-period line, however, lagged slightly. On a daily timeframe, the 50-period MA appears to be forming a base near 2920 MXN, suggesting potential consolidation. RSI peaked near 68 at the close, indicating overbought territory and possible profit-taking ahead.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands tightened in the early session before a sharp price expansion occurred. At 14:45 ET, the price surged above the upper band, confirming a breakout. The band width expanded significantly, indicating increased volatility and market interest. Prices have since remained above the 20-period moving average, suggesting continuation of the bullish trend in the short term.

Volume and Turnover

Volume was minimal in the early session but spiked sharply during the 14:45–15:00 ET window, coinciding with the breakout. Notional turnover also surged, confirming the move. No divergence was observed between volume and price, indicating strong conviction in the upward move. However, volume has since dropped back to near-zero levels in the past few sessions, raising questions about the sustainability of the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 2898–3007 MXN swing show the 2950 MXN level as the 38.2% retracement. Price is currently above the 61.8% level at 2949 MXN, suggesting the trend is intact. A break below 2920 MXN would trigger a test of the 2898 MXN support, aligning with the 20-period MA as a key pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of a strategy buying SOLMXN on confirmation of a bullish engulfing pattern yields mixed results. While the pattern appears to align with the breakout seen at 14:45 ET, the short-term nature of the holding period means gains are limited. The 75% accuracy rate suggests strong predictive power for the pattern, but the recent drawdown of -14.2% indicates that the pattern may not capture the full upward move without longer-term holding. Traders considering this pattern should account for both short and extended timeframes.