Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) on October 3, 2025

• SOLMXN opened at 4165.0, surged to 4310.0, and closed at 4292.0, showing bearish consolidation after a sharp rebound.
• Momentum appears to be weakening as RSI and MACD show divergence from price, suggesting potential exhaustion.
• Volatility remained moderate with most candles consolidating around key levels post 22:00 ET, but volume spikes hint at strategic participation.
• Bollinger Bands indicate price is within expected range, with no major contractions, suggesting normal volatility for the pair.
• Fibonacci retracement levels from the 18:45 ET swing suggest 4266.0 and 4292.0 as key near-term pivots.

SOLMXN opened at 4165.0 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 4310.0 before consolidating and closing at 4292.0 by 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 17.847 SOL, with a notional turnover of approximately 78,355.66 MXN. Price activity shows a strong initial rebound from support at 4165.0, followed by a bearish reversal into consolidation.

Key support and resistance levels emerged throughout the session. The initial support at 4165.0 was decisively broken by a bullish reversal into 4212.0, but the subsequent rally into 4310.0 appears to have failed to hold. A bearish rejection from 4310.0 followed, with price retreating to 4295.0 and then forming a bearish inside bar pattern from 01:30 to 02:15 ET. This suggests a potential continuation of downward momentum. Resistance at 4300.0 and support at 4266.0 were tested multiple times, indicating contested price levels.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover around the 2030 ET mark, signaling a potential shift in trend. MACD remained bearish throughout the latter half of the session, with the histogram contracting in line with the price consolidation. RSI, while not reaching oversold territory, has shown signs of divergence—rising slightly as price continues to pull back—implying a possible exhaustion in the current rally.

Bollinger Bands remained relatively stable, with price staying within the typical channel, suggesting that volatility has not expanded. The mid-band at around 4290.0 aligns with the 4292.0 close, indicating that the price is holding near the mean, which may not signal a breakout but rather a balanced short-term equilibrium. A key Fibonacci retracement level at 4266.0 was tested twice, acting as a critical pivot for near-term direction. Volume remained low during most of the consolidation, with the exception of key swings at 18:45 ET and 01:30 ET, indicating strategic, rather than broad market, participation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy aims to capitalize on the observed bearish reversal and consolidation following the 4310.0 high. The strategy involves entering a short position at the close of the bearish inside bar pattern formed at 01:30 ET, targeting the 4266.0 Fibonacci level as a first stop and 4292.0 as a take-profit. Stops would be placed above 4306.0 to manage risk. The MACD crossover and RSI divergence reinforce the timing of the entry, suggesting a medium-term bearish bias. This approach aligns with the observed price behavior, where key technical levels and volume patterns have defined the short-term trend.