Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN)

• SOLMXN traded in a narrow range early before a sharp decline late in the 24-hour period.
• A long bearish candle formed near session close, indicating potential bearish momentum.
• Volatility remained low for most of the period before increasing sharply in the final hours.
• RSI and MACD showed no strong overbought or oversold signals but confirmed downward price bias.
• Volume remained low throughout most of the session, with a modest increase during the final leg down.

The Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) pair opened at 3866.00 MXN at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24 and reached a high of 3962.00 MXN on 2025-09-24 18:15 ET. It closed at 3736.00 MXN at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, after a late-session decline that saw it dip as low as 3665.00 MXN. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 4.032 SOL, with a notional turnover of 15,753.52 MXN. The pair showed a bearish bias in the final hours, driven by a long bearish candle on the 15-minute chart.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period was marked by a relatively flat price action for the first 18 hours, with SOLMXN trading in a tight range between 3866.00 and 3962.00 MXN. A significant bearish move began around 08:15 ET on 2025-09-25 when the price dropped from 3958.00 MXN to 3764.00 MXN. This was followed by a continuation of the downtrend, with another sharp drop to 3665.00 MXN before a minor recovery to close at 3736.00 MXN. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 08:15 ET, suggesting bearish sentiment took over. A small bearish pinocchio line emerged during the final candle, indicating potential exhaustion.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained nearly flat during the early part of the session, reflecting the sideways consolidation. However, the 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA near the 08:15 ET candle, signaling a potential bearish crossover. The daily chart showed a similar bearish bias, with price below both the 50 and 100-period moving averages, though the 200-period MA was not available for analysis.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained largely flat until the sharp downtrend began. The MACD line dropped below the signal line during the late-night move, confirming the bearish shift. The histogram reflected a strong negative divergence, indicating increasing bearish momentum. RSI started the session near the 60 level but dropped rapidly to the 20s during the decline, suggesting oversold conditions and possible short-term buying opportunities, though the move did not trigger a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a narrow range for most of the session, indicating low volatility. This contracted phase ended around 08:15 ET when the price broke down through the lower band, signaling a breakout with increased volatility. The price remained below the lower band for much of the final session, indicating a strong bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained largely absent during the consolidation phase, with most 15-minute candles showing zero volume. A modest increase in volume occurred during the key bearish move around 08:15 ET and 14:30 ET, confirming the downward trend. Notional turnover rose in line with the price decline, suggesting meaningful participation. No major price-volume divergences were observed during the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent bearish move from 3962.00 MXN to 3665.00 MXN, key retracement levels include 3859.00 MXN (23.6%) and 3764.00 MXN (38.2%). The 3764.00 MXN level served as a temporary support but failed to hold, leading to a further decline. The 61.8% retracement level is at 3692.00 MXN, which was briefly tested before a slight rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish signals from the engulfing candle and the bearish divergence in MACD and RSI, a potential short entry could be triggered on a break below the 3665.00 MXN level. A stop-loss above the 3756.00 MXN high of the 14:30 ET candle could offer reasonable risk management, while a target could be set at 3657.00 MXN or lower based on the Fibonacci extension levels. This backtesting strategy aligns with the observed price action, leveraging key technical confirmations for timing and risk control.