Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN)

• SOLMXN traded in a tight range for most of the day before breaking out near 3880 MXN.
• A strong bullish reversal pattern formed after 18:30 ET with confirmed follow-through above 3837 MXN.
• Volatility surged during the late ET session with a spike in volume and price action confirmation.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions early, then moved into balanced territory as price climbed.
• Bollinger Bands compressed during consolidation, then expanded ahead of the breakout.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05, Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) opened at 3829 MXN and closed at 3800 MXN after a 24-hour session. The price reached a high of 3880 MXN and a low of 3800 MXN. Total traded volume was 25.716 SOL, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 98,348 MXN.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action displayed a consolidation phase between 3811 MXN and 3837 MXN before a strong breakout attempt near 3880 MXN. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 07:15 ET and 07:30 ET, followed by a bearish reversal at 14:45 ET, signaling potential indecision ahead. A key support level appears to have formed at 3811 MXN, which was tested multiple times during the session. Resistance is now likely retesting at 3837 MXN and 3880 MXN, with potential for follow-through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above 3830 MXN, indicating a shift in near-term momentum. The 20 MA was at 3834 MXN, while the 50 MA sat at 3831 MXN. Both lines confirmed a short-term upward bias during the breakout. Over the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are aligned below 3830 MXN, suggesting the longer-term trend may remain neutral to slightly bullish.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed into positive territory as price moved above 3837 MXN, with a histogram expansion confirming bullish momentum. RSI climbed from an oversold reading below 30 to a balanced position near 55 by the close. This suggests that while the short-term move was strong, it did not yet reach overbought territory. A follow-through above 3880 MXN could see RSI pushing into overbought conditions, while a failure to hold above 3837 MXN may drag RSI back toward oversold levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of tight consolidation between 3811 MXN and 3837 MXN, with price trading near the lower band for most of the session. A sharp breakout pushed price above the upper band near 3880 MXN, indicating increased volatility. The move appeared to be driven by a surge in volume and directional clarity. If the upper band holds as resistance, traders may expect a retest of the lower band in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume activity remained low for most of the session but spiked at 18:30 ET and again at 07:30 ET, coinciding with key breakout and pullback levels. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with spikes of over 10,000 MXN at key price inflection points. The divergence between volume and price at 14:45 ET raises some caution, as volume was weak despite a sharp price decline. This could hint at a potential counter-trend move or lack of conviction in the bearish wave.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 3811 MXN to 3880 MXN swing revealed key levels at 3837 MXN (38.2%), and 3852 MXN (50%). Price stalled at 3837 MXN and later tested the 50% level before retreating. These levels could act as potential re-entry points if the bullish trend holds. On the daily timeframe, a deeper correction could test the 38.2% retracement of the broader move from 3800 MXN to 3880 MXN, which aligns with the 3837 MXN level again.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this pair could focus on breakout trading using a 15-minute timeframe. The strategy would involve entering long at a confirmed close above 3837 MXN with a stop loss at 3811 MXN and a target at the next Fibonacci level, 3852 MXN. Conversely, a short position could be considered on a close below 3837 MXN with a stop at 3852 MXN and a target at 3811 MXN. This setup would leverage the breakout and retest patterns identified in the data, particularly during active trading hours.