Market Overview: Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) – 24-Hour Technical Summary

• SOLMXN opened at 3,601 and surged to 3,839 before retreating to close at 3,537, down 1.47%.
• Strong volume spiked at 6.508 on the 19:30 ET candle, signaling aggressive buying pressure followed by sharp reversal.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 23:45 candle, foreshadowing a potential near-term reversal.
• RSI hit overbought levels twice during the session, failing to sustain momentum above 60, indicating weak follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands showed a slight contraction, suggesting a potential breakout or consolidation phase ahead.

The Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) pair opened at 3,601 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3,537 on 2025-10-13 at the same time. The session recorded a high of 3,839 and a low of 3,537, with a total volume of 60.559 and notional turnover of 217,294.08 MXN. The price action reflected volatility and key turning points, especially after the 19:30 ET surge and the bearish reversal around 23:45.

The 15-minute chart revealed a dynamic session with the price testing a key resistance level around 3,675 early in the session before breaking through it. A strong bullish impulse followed, leading to a peak at 3,839. However, this was met with bearish pressure, forming a bearish engulfing pattern near the session high, which confirmed a shift in momentum. The 3,675–3,839 range is now a critical area to watch for potential support and resistance retesting.

On the MACD, a golden cross occurred early in the session, fueling the initial bullish move. However, the momentum failed to sustain, as the RSI repeatedly failed to confirm overbought levels above 60. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction, particularly around mid-session, suggesting the price could test either the upper or lower band in the near term. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed several times, indicating a lack of clear trend direction and the presence of a choppy, range-bound environment.

Fibonacci retracement levels showed the price retreating to the 61.8% level of the 3,601–3,839 move at around 3,558, which held briefly before a sharp decline to close near 3,537. This suggests that 3,537 could serve as a short-term floor or potential consolidation level. Looking ahead, investors may see a test of the 3,558–3,601 range in the next 24 hours, with a risk of a break below 3,537 if bearish momentum persists.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the MACD golden cross signal observed early in the session, a backtest could provide valuable insights into the viability of such a strategy in the SOLMXN pair. A backtesting framework could be developed by identifying every MACD golden cross since 2022 and generating trade signals based on those events. The strategy would involve entering a long position at the confirmation of the golden cross and exiting three trading days later to assess performance. This method could help determine if the pair’s unique volatility profile offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for short-term trades. By analyzing historical price behavior and comparing it to the current environment, this strategy could be adapted for broader application in other high-volatility crypto crosses.