Market Overview: Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• SOLMXN opened at 3736.0 MXN, dropped to 3551.0 MXN before closing at 3610.0 MXN, reflecting bearish pressure.
• A key breakdown candle at 18:00 ET marked the start of a sustained decline, confirmed by bearish volume.
• RSI approached oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the decline, indicating increasing volatility.
• Volume was concentrated during price lows, hinting at accumulation or distribution ambiguity.

The Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) pair opened at 3736.0 MXN on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. Over the next 24 hours, it reached a high of 3736.0 MXN and a low of 3551.0 MXN, closing at 3610.0 MXN at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The total traded volume across the 15-minute OHLCV dataset was 70.479 SOL, with a notional turnover of approximately 254,245 MXN (calculated using close prices).

The price action displayed a bearish structure, marked by a large bearish candle with a 102-point body (3636 to 3534) at 00:15–00:45 ET on 2025-09-26, followed by a period of consolidation. A key support level appears to have formed at 3551.0 MXN, which may hold significance in the near term. Resistance is likely found near 3634.0 MXN and 3653.0 MXN, which correspond to previous highs and could act as short-term ceilings.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart exhibited several bearish formations, including a key breakdown candle during the early morning hours, as well as a series of consolidating candles in the late night and early morning periods. A potential bearish engulfing pattern developed after the breakdown, reinforcing the bearish bias. A doji formed at 03:45 ET on 2025-09-26, suggesting indecision and possible short-term exhaustion in the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover, indicating continued downward momentum. The daily chart suggests a longer-term bearish structure with the 50-period and 200-period MA lines separating further, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price is currently below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which may pressure further downside.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish crossover, with negative histogram bars indicating bearish momentum. RSI dipped to 30 at the 2025-09-26 11:15 ET candle, signaling oversold conditions. This could offer potential for a short-term bounce, though a sustained reversal is unlikely without a break above 3653.0 MXN.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakdown phase, indicating rising volatility. Price action settled near the lower band for several hours, consistent with oversold conditions. A retest of the 3634.0 MXN level could signal whether the price is finding support or preparing another drop toward 3500.0 MXN.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown candle at 18:00 ET on 2025-09-25 and remained elevated during the early morning hours of 2025-09-26. Notional turnover aligned with volume spikes, confirming bearish strength. However, a divergence between volume and price during the 03:00–04:00 ET period suggests potential exhaustion in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 3736.0 MXN to 3551.0 MXN shows key levels at 3627.0 MXN (38.2%), 3610.0 MXN (50%), and 3593.0 MXN (61.8%). The current close at 3610.0 MXN suggests the 50% level may offer short-term resistance or support, depending on the next directional move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on the confirmation of a breakdown candle (e.g., a candle closing below a 15-minute EMA 20 line with bearish momentum, as seen on 2025-09-25 at 18:00 ET). Stops could be placed just above key resistance levels, such as 3653.0 MXN, with targets aligned with Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly the 61.8% (3593.0 MXN) and 78.6% (3562.0 MXN) levels. Long entries might be triggered on a confirmed bounce above 3634.0 MXN, using the 50-period EMA and RSI as confirmation tools.