Market Overview: Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) – 24-Hour Price Action

• • •
• SOLMXN formed a large bearish reversal at 4471 MXN during the 18:15 ET session.
• Price traded in a tight range at 4398 MXN for ~5 hours with no volume.
• A bullish reversal occurred at 4498 MXN overnight, but volume remains weak.
• Volatility expanded briefly to 4593 MXN before retracing lower again.
• RSI near 50 suggests neutral momentum, while Bollinger Bands show no clear expansion.

The 24-hour session for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) opened at 4471 MXN and reached a high of 4593 MXN, while the low was 4398 MXN. The price closed at 4495 MXN at 16:00 ET, 12 hours after the 12:00 ET close. The total traded volume amounted to 23.937 SOL, and with the average price of ~4490 MXN, this implies a notional turnover of ~107,487 MXN during the period.

Structure & Formations

A key bearish reversal occurred at 4471 MXN on the 18:15 ET candle, marked by a large body and 73 MXN drop. This was followed by a ~5-hour consolidation at 4398 MXN with no volume, indicating a lack of conviction. A bullish reversal followed overnight at 4498 MXN, but the open at that level was unconfirmed until 00:30 ET with a small bullish candle. The most recent bearish pressure emerged at 14:45 ET, with a 98 MXN drop to 4495 MXN. A doji formed at that level, suggesting indecision and potential for a reversal. A key support appears to be forming at 4495 MXN, and resistance at 4593 MXN and 4498 MXN.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages would likely cluster near the consolidation range at 4398 MXN, indicating a flat trend. Daily averages such as the 50/100/200 SMA would likely be higher than the 12:00 ET price, suggesting a potential retest of short-term support from below.

MACD & RSI

The RSI remained in neutral territory throughout the session, hovering near the 50 level, indicating no clear overbought or oversold condition. MACD showed minimal divergence, suggesting that momentum has not yet accelerated on either side. However, the bearish reversal at 4471 MXN and subsequent consolidation suggest a weakening of bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed no significant expansion or contraction during the session. The price remained largely within the bands, indicating low volatility. However, the 14:45 ET candle’s drop broke the lower band temporarily, indicating a potential short-term oversold condition.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was negligible for most of the session, particularly during the 5-hour consolidation phase. A small volume spike occurred at 18:15 ET and again at 00:30 ET, but these were not sufficient to confirm strong directional moves. Notional turnover was equally subdued, with no divergence observed between price and volume action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 18:15–00:30 ET swing (4471–4498 MXN), the 38.2% level aligns with 4491 MXN and the 61.8% at ~4484 MXN. The 14:45–16:00 ET move (4593–4495 MXN) saw the 61.8% retracement at ~4530 MXN, suggesting resistance there if the market retraces higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for this pair could involve entering short positions on a bearish reversal candle with volume confirmation, such as the 18:15 ET candle at 4471 MXN. A stop-loss could be placed above the high of the prior bullish candle at 4498 MXN, while a take-profit could target the 61.8% Fibonacci level at ~4484 MXN. This setup would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum while limiting risk to a defined range. Given the low volume and high indecision, this strategy would perform best in a trending, low-volatility environment, and may require confirmation through multiple timeframes for robust execution.