Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN): 24-Hour Analysis

• Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) saw a 24-hour decline, ending at 3,447 MXN from a high of 3,944 MXN.
• Price tested multiple swing supports and formed a bearish inside bar pattern after a sharp sell-off.
• Volume spiked during the sell-off but faded afterward, indicating exhaustion or lack of follow-through.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions but are yet to confirm a reversal.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) closed at 3,447 MXN, down from an open of 3,896 MXN and a high of 3,944 MXN, with a low of 3,425 MXN. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 617.85, and notional turnover totaled 1,955,803 MXN. The pair has shown bearish momentum with no clear signs of a reversal yet.

Structure & Formations

The price structure over the 24-hour period suggests a strong bearish bias. A sharp sell-off began around 21:15 ET when the price fell from 3,667 MXN to 3,472 MXN in a single 15-minute candle. The move continued with a low of 3,425 MXN at 21:30 ET. A key support level appears to have been tested around 3,425–3,427 MXN, which held briefly but was later broken. A bearish inside bar pattern formed at 09:00–09:15 ET as the price consolidated before the final leg down. Additionally, doji and spinning top candles in the 03:00–05:00 ET range suggest indecision and potential exhaustion in the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in a downward trajectory, confirming the bearish bias. The price has remained below both lines for the majority of the period, indicating short-term bear dominance. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages suggest a continuation of the bearish trend, with no signs of a retest or reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is negative and has crossed below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The histogram has been shrinking since the 03:00 ET mark, suggesting slowing downward pressure. RSI has dipped below 30 into oversold territory but has not yet found a floor, indicating that sellers may still control the price action.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands have contracted significantly during the overnight hours, signaling potential volatility ahead. The price broke below the lower band during the morning hours, confirming a bearish breakout. The width of the bands suggests that a consolidation phase could follow if the price finds a base in the 3,425–3,450 MXN range. The volatility has since expanded as the bearish move continued.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the sell-off phase, especially between 21:15 and 21:30 ET, with turnover exceeding 1 million MXN. However, volume has since diminished significantly, suggesting either a lack of conviction or an exhaustion phase. The divergence between price and volume is a cautionary sign for further short-term bearish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels of 38.2% (3,636 MXN) and 61.8% (3,504 MXN) were tested but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the larger bear move is near 3,425 MXN, which was a key support level that failed. This suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend unless the price can close above the 3,504 MXN level in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on shorting on a break below key support levels like 3,425–3,450 MXN, with a stop just above 3,504 MXN and a target at 3,300–3,350 MXN. This would align with the recent structure and RSI/ MACD divergence. Given the low volume and fading momentum, the strategy would aim to capture a continuation of the current bearish trend. Traders should be cautious of volatility spikes and false breakouts, especially with the Bollinger Bands recently widening.