Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN): 2025-11-07 to 2025-11-08

• SOLMXN traded in a narrow range overnight before a sharp 6% rally in early hours.
• Momentum remains muted with RSI near mid-range and no clear breakout signals.
• Volume surged during the rally but faded quickly, indicating potential consolidation ahead.

The Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) pair opened at 2855.00 MXN on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET-1, reached a 24-hour high of 3031.00 MXN, and closed at 3004.00 MXN by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. Total volume over the period was 4.23 Solana, translating to a notional turnover of ~12,744 MXN. Price action remained largely within a tight range before breaking out with a bullish impulsion in the early hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed minimal volatility for much of the session until a key bullish breakout above the 2988.00 MXN psychological support level, forming a bullish engulfing pattern at 01:15 AM. A small bearish candle followed at 05:30 AM, indicating a possible correction in progress. Key support levels to watch include 2988.00 MXN and 2855.00 MXN, with resistance forming at 3020.00 MXN and potentially 3031.00 MXN.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed above the 2900 MXN level, showing a gradual upward shift. The daily chart remains in a long-term neutral bias, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages converging around the 2950 MXN area, suggesting a potential accumulation phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line during the 03:45 AM to 04:00 AM period, confirming the bullish impulse. RSI reached a peak of 58, avoiding overbought territory and suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. However, the RSI remains within the mid-range, which may hint at moderate momentum and lack of conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained tightly within the Bollinger Bands for the majority of the 24-hour period, with the bands themselves narrowing, indicating low volatility. The recent rally caused the price to briefly touch the upper band at 3027.00 MXN, suggesting a potential exhaustion point for the current move.

Volume & Turnover

The 03:45 AM candle saw a notable volume spike of 1.681 SOL and a price jump to 3020 MXN, confirming the strength of the breakout. However, this was followed by minimal volume and flat price action, signaling potential consolidation. Turnover was concentrated in the first half of the session, with a sharp drop-off observed after the initial move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the key swing from 2855.00 MXN to 3031.00 MXN showed the 2988.00 MXN level as the 38.2% retracement, which was successfully tested and broken. The 61.8% retracement level at ~3006 MXN is currently a key watch point for a potential pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy hinges on validating the strength of the RSI signal in capturing early momentum shifts. Given the absence of a direct SOL-MXN feed, using an extrapolated price from a primary SOL-USD pair and converting it via the USD-MXN rate could serve as a proxy. This approach would allow for a more comprehensive RSI-based strategy backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08, evaluating the effectiveness of the indicator in predicting trend reversals and continuation phases. The lack of a direct price feed introduces a degree of approximation but remains a viable method for preliminary testing.