Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) - 2025-10-12

• SOLMXN opened at $3491, reached a high of $3601, and closed near $3434 after a sharp drop.
• Momentum indicators showed mixed signals, with RSI entering oversold territory near the close.
• Volume spiked in late-night hours, but turnover failed to confirm a strong directional move.
• Key support tested at $3434, with resistance levels forming near $3567 and $3601.
• Volatility increased after a prolonged consolidation, with Bollinger Bands widening near 03:00 ET.

SOLMXN opened at $3491 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3434 by 12:00 ET the following day. The pair reached a high of $3601 and a low of $3327. Total traded volume was 105.65 SOL, while the total notional turnover reached $362,642 MXN. Price action showed a sharp bearish correction starting at 20:45 ET, breaking below $3400.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart displayed multiple notable formations. A sharp bearish reversal pattern emerged at 20:45 ET, with a long lower wick and bearish engulfing pattern as the price fell from $3492 to $3348. Later in the session, a bullish reversal appeared at $3327, followed by a strong engulfing pattern at 03:30 ET that pushed the price back toward $3344. A small doji at 04:00 ET indicated indecision before a final consolidation phase into the closing price.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average was slightly above the 50-period line, indicating a potential bearish bias. However, the price remained below both, suggesting continued downward pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average crossed below the 100-period line, reinforcing a bearish trend. The 200-period MA acted as a critical resistance level, preventing the price from rebounding above $3434.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the sharp bearish move at 20:45 ET, confirming a shift in momentum. The RSI dropped into oversold territory near 01:30 ET, indicating a potential bounce. However, the failure to rebound above the 40 level suggests a lack of immediate bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands reflected a period of volatility expansion after a prolonged consolidation phase. The sharp move down from $3492 to $3348 pushed the price below the lower band, indicating a high volatility event. The bands then widened between 00:00 ET and 04:00 ET, suggesting increased trading activity and market uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 20:45 ET with a large sell-off of 9.049 SOL that drove the price down to $3348. A further spike in volume at 21:15 ET confirmed a bearish continuation. Turnover failed to confirm this strength, with the largest volume events showing only moderate increases in notional value. A divergence between volume and price appeared after 03:00 ET, suggesting weakening momentum and potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels showed a bearish bias for the session. The key 61.8% retracement level of the $3327–$3601 move aligned closely with $3434, the final closing price. A minor 38.2% level was tested at $3567 before the bearish move resumed. The 61.8% retracement may act as a near-term support or a potential bounce level depending on the next session’s sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-biased approach when the RSI falls below 30 and the MACD line crosses below the signal line. This would align with the observed bearish divergence and momentum shift during the 20:45 ET drop. A stop-loss could be placed above the 50-period moving average, with a target set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This strategy would require confirmation of a strong break below $3434 and a continuation of low turnover to avoid false breakouts.