Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) on 2025-10-10

• SOLMXN traded in a narrow range for most of the day, breaking higher in early ET hours before sharp late selling.
• A key bearish reversal pattern formed near 4,109 MXN after strong volume prints, suggesting momentum has turned.
• Volatility surged in the final 90 minutes, with volume spiking sharply during the breakdown below 4,000 MXN.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions before the late sell-off, indicating potential exhaustion of the bullish move.
• Bollinger Bands expanded after the breakout, confirming increased uncertainty and risk of a pullback.

SOLMXN opened at 4,063 MXN (12:00 ET-1), reached a high of 4,109 MXN, and closed at 3,924 MXN by 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 34.566 SOL, with a notional turnover of approximately 138,888 MXN. The pair saw extended consolidation before a sharp selloff late in the day.

Structure & Formations

The chart exhibited a period of consolidation between 4,030 MXN and 4,063 MXN, followed by a breakout to 4,109 MXN. However, the rally lacked sufficient volume confirmation and failed to close above the breakout high. A large bearish candle formed at 4,109 MXN, with a long lower shadow and a sharp decline to 3,924 MXN. This structure suggests potential exhaustion of the bullish move and a shift in sentiment. Key support levels are now forming at 4,030 MXN and 3,924 MXN, with the former acting as a short-term floor and the latter as a possible psychological level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed above 4,063 MXN during consolidation and briefly pushed higher with the breakout. However, they failed to hold above 4,100 MXN and have since turned downward, indicating waning bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages are all above 4,000 MXN, but the 50-period MA is beginning to flatten, suggesting potential weakening in the long-term uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI hit overbought territory (~70) during the peak at 4,109 MXN, confirming a potential top. MACD showed a bullish crossover before the breakout but quickly reversed into bearish territory, indicating diverging momentum. Both indicators are now bearish and may signal a continuation of the selloff unless SOLMXN retests and holds above 4,100 MXN.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remained relatively flat until the breakout, after which they expanded rapidly to accommodate the sharp move lower. Price is now below the 20-period lower band on the 15-minute chart, suggesting a continuation of the bearish bias. The expansion in volatility may persist as the market digests the breakdown and tests key support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was minimal during most of the day but spiked in the final 3 hours, particularly during the breakdown below 4,100 MXN. Notional turnover increased significantly during this period, confirming the strength of the bearish move. The divergence between early volume and late volume suggests a shift in control from range-bound trading to active shorting. However, volume during the final decline remains moderate, so a deeper breakdown may require a follow-through volume day.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart show the breakdown at 3,924 MXN aligns closely with the 61.8% retracement of the 4,030 MXN to 4,109 MXN move, reinforcing the bearish scenario. On a daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the previous leg is at 4,050 MXN, a level that failed to hold and now acts as a potential intermediate resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy in question is based on detecting bearish reversal patterns (e.g., large bodies with long lower shadows) on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by volume spikes and a divergence in MACD and RSI. This approach would have triggered a sell signal near 4,109 MXN, aligning with the late-day breakdown. Historical testing would be needed to validate its effectiveness, but the setup appears to meet the criteria for a short entry with stop-loss above the prior high and target at 38.2–61.8% Fibonacci levels.