Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) – 2025-10-04

• SOLMXN traded in a narrow range, with minimal price deviation across 24 hours.
• Price action showed no clear momentum, with RSI and MACD near neutral levels.
• Volatility remained subdued, with price confined within Bollinger Bands.
• Notable volume surges occurred during early ET trading, but no directional bias emerged.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest 4232 MXN as a key support and 4308 MXN as recent resistance.

SOLMXN opened at 4262.0 MXN on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 4308.0 MXN, touched a low of 4231.0 MXN, and closed at 4232.0 MXN by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The total 24-hour volume was 20.602 SOL, with notional turnover at 89,225.0 MXN. Price movement was contained and lacked clear directional momentum.

Structure and formation analysis indicate the 4232.0 MXN level acting as a strong support, where the price found repeated buying interest. A small bullish engulfing pattern emerged briefly at 021500 ET, but it lacked volume confirmation. No significant bearish or bullish candlestick patterns were formed during the period. Bollinger Bands remained narrow, reflecting low volatility and a consolidation phase.

Moving averages for the 15-minute chart show the 20-period and 50-period lines overlapping near 4260.0 MXN, with the price oscillating slightly below the 20SMA. For the daily chart, the 50-day MA sits at 4300.0 MXN, suggesting a minor bearish bias in the broader trend. The 200-day MA is at 4280.0 MXN, supporting the idea that the pair is trading near key psychological levels.

MACD hovered around the zero line with a neutral histogram, showing no strong bullish or bearish momentum. RSI remained between 45 and 55 for the majority of the session, signaling indecision. A brief dip in RSI to 38 was noted at 031500 ET, indicating a marginal oversold condition, though no follow-through buying occurred. Volume was muted overall, with the largest spikes occurring during the 223000–231500 ET period.

Fibonacci retracements for the recent 15-minute high (4308.0 MXN) to low (4231.0 MXN) show 4267.0 MXN (38.2%) and 4249.0 MXN (61.8%) as potential pivots. The 4232.0 MXN level coincides with the 61.8% retracement, reinforcing its significance. No divergence between price and indicators was observed.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the observed consolidation and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 4232.0 MXN acting as a strong support level, a backtest strategy could be designed to test long entries on a bullish break above 4252.0 MXN, with a stop-loss placed below 4232.0 MXN and a take-profit target at 4280.0 MXN, which represents the 50-day MA and a prior resistance level. This setup capitalizes on a potential continuation of upward momentum following a confirmed support test.