Market Overview: Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) on 2025-09-22

• SOLMXN traded in a tight range for most of the day before a sharp decline in the early hours of 2025-09-22.
• Price action formed a bearish breakdown from consolidation near 4410.0, hitting 4061.0 by 06:15 ET.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 30, but no clear reversal was seen.
• Volume surged during the 06:15 ET candle, coinciding with the largest price drop.
• Bollinger Bands compressed during consolidation and expanded as volatility increased.

The Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) pair opened at 4410.0 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and traded within a narrow range for over 9 hours, before a sharp decline began around 00:15 ET on 2025-09-22. The price dropped to a low of 4061.0 and closed at 4082.0 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour period was approximately 45.0, with a total turnover of roughly 196,336.0 (calculated as volume-weighted price).

The pair remained in a tight range for much of the day, forming a consolidation pattern near 4410.0. A key bearish breakdown occurred on the candle ending at 06:15 ET, when the price dropped from 4200.0 to 4122.0, followed by a further decline to 4061.0. This breakdown from consolidation likely triggered stop-loss activity, accelerating the bearish move. Support levels appear to be forming at 4200.0 and 4119.0, with the 4061.0 level acting as a significant short-term floor. Resistance remains untested for now, but 4274.0 and 4311.0 could serve as key retracement levels if buying returns.

Structure & Formations

SOLMXN’s price action revealed several key patterns throughout the day. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 00:15 ET as the candle opened at 4311.0 and closed at 4398.0 before a sharp reversal downward. Later in the morning, a bearish breakdown pattern emerged as the price fell from 4274.0 to 4200.0 and continued lower. The 4119.0 level held firm as a key support, with price bouncing back slightly after several attempts to break below it. A potential bullish reversal may appear if the 4061.0 support holds and volume begins to increase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price action as the breakdown occurred, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages have not yet been reached, so it is unclear whether a larger trend is emerging. However, the 200-period moving average, if known, could provide context on the longer-term trend. For now, short-term bearish momentum is in control.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish as the breakdown occurred, with the histogram turning negative and the signal line crossing above the main line. This confirmed the downward shift in momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30 during the late morning, but no immediate reversal was confirmed, suggesting that bears still hold the upper hand. If RSI rises above 50 while volume increases, a short-term bounce could be possible.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained compressed during consolidation, with Bollinger Bands narrowing around 4410.0. As the price dropped, the bands expanded, with the 20-period standard deviation rising. Price action closed near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a bounce. If the lower band holds, a retracement back to the 4144.0 or 4159.0 levels may occur.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was nearly flat until the breakdown at 06:15 ET, when a large-volume candle (4.0) confirmed the move downward. Turnover increased significantly during that period, aligning with the price drop. However, as the price continued to fall later in the day, volume remained low, suggesting that momentum is fading. If volume begins to increase again during a reversal attempt, it could confirm stronger buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 4410.0 to 4061.0 shows key levels at 4235.0 (23.6%) and 4137.0 (38.2%), both of which were touched or tested during the retracement phase. The 4119.0 level aligns with the 50% Fibonacci level, which appears to be holding as a key support. If buyers take control, the 61.8% level (4159.0) could become a target for a potential bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the breakdown pattern and the bearish confirmation from MACD and RSI, a potential backtesting strategy would involve a short entry at the close of the 06:15 ET candle (4122.0), with a stop-loss placed above the consolidation high at 4274.0. A target of 4061.0 would align with the recent low and could also provide a clear exit point. The strategy would rely on the continuation of bearish momentum after the breakdown and a lack of immediate reversal signals. This approach would benefit from low volatility and high volume during the breakdown for confirmation.