Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) - 2025-09-18

• SOLMXN opened at $4,317.00 and surged to $4,542.00 before retreating to close at $4,500.00.
• Key resistance formed at $4,542.00 and $4,530.00, with support at $4,500.00 and $4,414.00.
• Volatility increased after 17:30 ET, with volume spiking during the $4,280–$4,370 range.
• RSI showed overbought conditions at 76 during the late-night rally, signaling potential pullback.
• Turnover remained low until a 0.887 volume spike at $4,495.00, then faded before closing.

The Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) pair opened at $4,317.00 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, and closed at $4,500.00 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was $4,542.00, and the low was $4,280.00. Total volume traded was 26.492 units, with a total notional turnover of $115,384.58 (calculated from volume × weighted average price).

From a structure perspective, the 15-minute chart displayed a bullish bias after 21:30 ET, with a notable breakout from $4,414.00 to $4,542.00. However, a bearish reversal formed at $4,542.00, as the pair declined to $4,530.00 and then to $4,500.00. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $4,530.00, signaling potential bearish pressure. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 20-period MA late in the session, suggesting a temporary bullish momentum that failed to hold.

RSI hit a high of 76 during the late-night rally, indicating overbought conditions. A pullback to the 50–60 RSI range appears likely. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction at $4,317.00 before expanding as price moved toward $4,542.00. Price closed just below the upper band at $4,500.00, indicating a possible continuation of consolidation.

Volume spiked at $4,280.00 and $4,370.00, confirming the early volatility. However, volume dried up after the $4,542.00 peak, suggesting a lack of follow-through buying. A divergence between price and volume at $4,530.00 suggests weakening momentum. Fibonacci retracements placed key levels at $4,500.00 (38.2%), $4,453.00 (50%), and $4,414.00 (61.8%), with $4,500.00 now acting as immediate support.

The 15-minute chart shows a breakout and subsequent pullback, with a bearish engulfing candle at $4,530.00. The RSI histogram peaks and then declines, showing exhaustion. Bollinger Bands show a breakout from consolidation and a potential reversal at the upper band.

The backtest strategy described involves a 15-minute time frame with a focus on breakout and reversal patterns. Given the formation of a bearish engulfing candle at $4,530.00 and the overbought RSI, a short strategy may be triggered near this level. A long entry could be considered at the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($4,500.00) if a bounce occurs, with a stop loss below $4,414.00. This approach would benefit from the use of Bollinger Bands and RSI for timing entries and exits.