Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) — 2025-09-17

• SOLMXN traded in a tight range for most of the session before a sharp drop in the early hours of 2025-09-17.
• Momentum appears to have weakened, with RSI and MACD signaling a potential pullback after a modest rally in the late afternoon.
• Volatility was muted for the majority of the 24-hour period, with the largest single move occurring in the 06:45 ET candle.
• A bearish divergence between price and turnover emerged as the pair declined, suggesting cautious positioning.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17, Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) was trading at MXN 4286.00, down from the 12:00 ET previous day open of MXN 4360.00. The pair reached an intraday high of MXN 4385.00 and a low of MXN 4286.00, with total volume of 11.612 SOL and a turnover of MXN 50,007.16 over the 24-hour period. The session ended with a bearish bias, marked by a late-day breakdown from a key 15-minute resistance level.

Structure & Formations

The session featured a key breakout and breakdown sequence. A bullish candle on the 21:00 ET (UTC-4) 15-minute chart pushed price to a 12-hour high of MXN 4385.00. However, this failed to hold as a bearish engulfing pattern formed shortly after on the 21:30 ET candle, signaling a reversal. A large bearish candle on the 06:45 ET (UTC-4) session (volume: 0.922 SOL, move from MXN 4359.00 to MXN 4325.00) marked the start of a sustained bearish phase.

Another bearish signal emerged at 11:00 ET (UTC-4) with a candle showing a drop from MXN 4325.00 to MXN 4286.00, forming a potential bearish continuation pattern. The session ended with a final bearish candle at 15:15 ET (UTC-4), closing at MXN 4317.00, reinforcing the short-term bearish structure.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key levels include MXN 4286.00 (strong support), MXN 4325.00 (intermediate support), and MXN 4359.00 (resistance). A break below MXN 4286.00 could target MXN 4260.00, while a close above MXN 4359.00 may retest MXN 4385.00.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both moved downward, with the 50-period slightly above the 20-period line, indicating a bearish crossover. This reinforces the short-term bearish momentum.

On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, but the 100-period MA is beginning to flatten, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The price remains above the 50-period MA, indicating a mixed signal between short- and long-term positioning.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish on the 21:00 ET (UTC-4) candle, confirming the breakdown in momentum. The histogram showed a strong negative divergence between price and momentum after 06:45 ET (UTC-4). The RSI indicator fell below 50 shortly after the mid-session high and remained in bearish territory, with a low of 35.2 recorded during the 11:00 ET candle.

A modest recovery occurred in the late afternoon, with RSI rising toward 48, but this failed to trigger a bullish reversal in the MACD line. The RSI remains below 50, suggesting that sellers continue to dominate in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained compressed for much of the session, with the Bollinger Band width fluctuating between 1.2% and 2.1%. The price traded near the lower band for most of the session, with a brief excursion to the upper band during the 21:00 ET candle.

The 06:45 ET bearish candle pushed the price back below the lower band, signaling a continuation of the bearish momentum. If the pair remains within the Bollinger Band range, it may consolidate near the lower band before a potential breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unusually low for most of the session, with average 15-minute volume at 0.11 SOL. However, the largest candle by volume occurred at 06:45 ET (UTC-4), with 0.922 SOL traded, coinciding with the most significant price move of the session.

Turnover spiked during that candle with MXN 4,080.00 in notional value, reinforcing the bearish price action. A divergence emerged between the late-day price recovery and minimal turnover, suggesting a lack of conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the 15-minute swing from MXN 4289.00 to MXN 4385.00, key Fibonacci retracement levels include MXN 4359.00 (23.6%), MXN 4340.00 (38.2%), and MXN 4317.00 (50%).

On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level from a recent higher high aligns with MXN 4317.00, where the pair found initial resistance before the final bearish candle. A break below MXN 4286.00 would test the MXN 4260.00 level, corresponding to the 61.8% retracement of a prior upward leg.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on the bearish engulfing patterns and the key Fibonacci levels as dynamic stop-loss and take-profit triggers. Traders could enter short positions on the close of a bearish engulfing candle with a stop above the high of the engulfing pattern. A take-profit could be set at either the 61.8% retracement level or the next Fibonacci level in the bearish direction, depending on the volatility observed during the session.

Using the Bollinger Bands as volatility indicators could further refine entry and exit timing, with breakouts below the lower band confirming the continuation of bearish momentum. Incorporating volume spikes as confirmation signals may help filter out false breakouts and increase the accuracy of the strategy.