Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) on 2025-09-15

• Price dropped from 4,681 to 4,298 MXN over 24 hours amid low volume and limited price action.
• No significant bullish or bearish candlestick patterns observed, with price consolidating between key levels.
• RSI suggested oversold conditions toward the close, hinting at potential short-term reversal.
• Volume remained muted throughout most of the session, with only minor spikes after sharp price declines.

Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) opened at 4,495 MXN on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 4,681 MXN before closing at 4,298 MXN on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the period was 19.52 MXN, and total turnover was 86,713 MXN.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish breakdown from a consolidation range between 4,450 and 4,681 MXN. A sharp sell-off occurred around 20:00 ET on 2025-09-14, with a gap down from 4,681 to 4,450 MXN. This level formed a key resistance-turned-support. A subsequent decline to 4,427 MXN marked a new short-term support zone. The most notable structure was a long bearish candle on 07:45 ET (07:4500) when the price dropped from 4,512 to 4,381 MXN, indicating aggressive selling pressure.

Moving Averages

Over the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover trend. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA in the latter half of the session, reinforcing the downward bias. Daily moving averages (50DMA, 100DMA, 200DMA) would be needed to confirm longer-term trends, but the 15-minute chart shows a consistent bearish alignment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line throughout the session, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram showed a gradual contraction in the morning, followed by a sharp expansion during the sell-off, reinforcing the bearish bias. RSI dropped below 30 toward the end of the session, suggesting oversold conditions. However, this could be a sign of exhaustion rather than a reversal, particularly given the lack of volume.

Bollinger Bands

The price action remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, with a slight contraction in volatility observed before the sell-off. After the sharp decline, the price traded near the lower band, which could act as a support level. A sustained rebound above the middle band would suggest a potential reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained relatively low throughout the session, with the most significant increase occurring during the 20:00 ET sell-off and the 07:45 ET drop. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the price declines. However, the absence of strong buying pressure after the sell-off suggests weak conviction in a rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 4,450–4,681 range, key levels include 61.8% at 4,530 and 38.2% at 4,570. The price failed to retest these levels, instead dropping below 4,450, suggesting a potential target near 4,350–4,400 MXN as the next support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy could leverage the bearish divergence between the price and volume to trigger short entries. A trigger could be placed when the price breaks below key support levels (e.g., 4,450 MXN) with a confirmed bearish divergence in MACD and RSI. A stop-loss could be placed just above the recent high of 4,681 MXN, with a target near 4,350 MXN. Given the low volume observed, the strategy would also benefit from incorporating a filter that requires a minimum volume threshold before entering a trade.