Market Overview for Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) – 2025-09-05

• Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) traded in a narrow range most of the session before a late surge to a high of 3880.
• Price consolidated for much of the day near 3837, with minimal volume and no clear directional momentum.
• A bullish breakout occurred near 07:30 ET with a large-volume candle closing at 3880.
• MACD and RSI showed low volatility during the consolidation phase before diverging toward the end of the session.
• Volatility expanded late in the session, but notional turnover remained modest despite price movement.

Opening Narrative

Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) opened at 3829 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached a high of 3880 by 10:00 AM ET on 2025-09-05. The pair closed at 3880 after a consolidation phase followed by a late-day rally. Total 24-hour volume was 39.748 with a turnover of 150,084.00 MXN.

Structure & Formations

The price action was characterized by a long period of consolidation between 3811 and 3837 before a sharp move up in the morning of 2025-09-05. A large bullish candle at 07:30 ET marked the breakout. This candle, with an open at 3811 and a close at 3880, appears as a strong reversal pattern against the previous range. A potential support zone is identified at 3811, where the price spent several hours. Resistance appears to be forming at 3880, which was the session high.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages were aligned near 3830–3835, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish bias after the breakout. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) would provide more context on broader sentiment, but based on the 15-minute chart alone, the price is now above the 20-period MA, indicating a potential short-term reversal.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a flat signal during the consolidation phase, consistent with low volatility. However, after the breakout at 07:30 ET, the histogram began to show a positive divergence. RSI rose sharply in the final hours, reaching into overbought territory near 75–80, suggesting a potential correction in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

During most of the session, price stayed within a narrow range near the 3830–3837 level, compressing the Bollinger Bands. The late-day breakout moved the price to the upper band, indicating heightened volatility and potential continuation pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained extremely low during the consolidation phase, with most 15-minute candles recording zero volume. The breakout candle at 07:30 ET was the largest in terms of volume (2.983) and was followed by a second strong-volume candle at 00:30 ET. Notional turnover increased slightly during the breakout but remained modest compared to larger market moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing between 3811 and 3880, the 38.2% retraction level sits near 3845, and the 61.8% level near 3830. The price closed near the 3880 level, suggesting it may test the 61.8% level before finding a near-term equilibrium.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be built around the breakout at 07:30 ET, using a stop-loss just below the consolidation range and a target near the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A long entry at the open of the breakout candle with a stop at 3811 could yield a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:3.5 based on the move to 3880. This approach would align with the observed volume confirmation and RSI divergence, potentially offering a high-probability short-term trade.