Market Overview: Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) – Volatile 24-Hour Move Amid Mixed Momentum

• Price surged from 333,000 to 353,988 before retreating to 333,000 by 16:00 ET.
• Strong volume spikes during bullish breakouts, but bearish divergence in turnover later.
• RSI showed overbought conditions, followed by sharp bearish momentum reversal.
• 15-minute chart displayed multiple engulfing and hanging man patterns near key resistance.
• Bollinger Bands reflected high volatility during the midday rally; price closed near lower band.

24-Hour Price Action Summary

Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) opened at 344,074 on 2025-10-08 at 16:00 ET, surged to a high of 353,988, dropped to a low of 333,000, and closed at 333,000 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Over the 24-hour period, total volume traded was 49.908 and total notional turnover was ~1.67 billion ARS. The pair exhibited a sharp reversal in price action after a strong midday rally.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bullish move beginning at 17:00 ET on October 8, where price surged from 344,000 to 350,000 in under an hour. This was followed by a large bullish engulfing pattern and a hanging man pattern near 353,988, signaling potential exhaustion. Later in the session, from 01:45 to 02:30 ET on October 9, a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed a reversal. The 345,000 and 341,713 levels acted as key psychological and structural support, respectively, with price failing to close above 350,000 during the session.

Moving Averages, MACD, and RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA during the bullish phase, confirming momentum. However, the MACD histogram began to shrink during the afternoon, signaling weakening bullish momentum. The RSI reached 78–80 during the peak, entering overbought territory before turning sharply bearish to sub-30 levels by 02:30 ET. This suggests a strong short-term reversal in sentiment.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Price surged to the upper Bollinger Band (at ~353,000) during the afternoon, indicating high volatility. The band width expanded significantly during the rally, reflecting increased uncertainty. By the evening, price collapsed to the lower Bollinger Band (at ~333,000), indicating exhaustion and consolidation. The move below the lower band suggests a bearish bias, but without a clear breakout, further consolidation is likely.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Volume surged during the bullish leg, peaking at 2.806 at 19:45 ET, while notional turnover mirrored this. However, during the bearish reversal (01:45–02:30 ET), volume and turnover were relatively muted, indicating a lack of conviction. This divergence may signal a potential continuation of bearish bias or a false breakdown. The final leg of the decline (02:30–08:30 ET) saw minimal volume, suggesting a possible pause in selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci to the 333,000–353,988 swing, key retracements include 348,000 (38.2%) and 342,000 (61.8%), both of which saw failed attempts to hold. Price tested the 61.8% level at 342,000 twice without closing above it, reinforcing bearish sentiment. On the daily chart, the 340,000 and 335,000 levels appear as likely support zones, with a break below 330,000 potentially opening the door to 320,000.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy would involve entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below 342,000, with a stop-loss above 348,000 and a target near 330,000. Given the RSI divergence and volume profile, a 1–2 hour holding period may be optimal for capturing the full bearish move. This aligns with the technical setup observed during the 02:30–04:30 ET window and could be tested on historical 15-minute data from similar volatility spikes.