Market Overview for Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS)

Summary
• Price surged to 242,242 ARS before retreating amid low turnover.
• Momentum shifted midday with RSI signaling overbought levels.
• Volatility expanded in early hours but consolidated in the afternoon.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before a late expansion.
• Key support levels appeared at 238,000 and 235,000 ARS.

The 24-hour period for Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) saw a high of 242,242 ARS and a low of 231,001 ARS, with the pair closing at 230,125 ARS compared to an open of 229,652 ARS at 12:00 ET−1. Total trading volume amounted to 42.63 SOL, translating to a notional turnover of approximately 9.8 million ARS.

On the 15-minute chart, price showed a bullish breakout in the early hours, reaching a high of 242,242 ARS, but failed to sustain the momentum. A bearish reversal became evident by the late afternoon as volume picked up near key support levels. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bullish alignment during the initial surge, but the 50-period line started to turn downward by midday.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought territory early in the session, peaking at around 75 before retracing. This suggests a potential exhaustion of the bullish momentum, which was later confirmed by bearish reversal patterns like hanging man and dark cloud cover. Momentum remained weak throughout the latter half of the session, with RSI dipping below 40, indicating a potential oversold condition and setting the stage for a consolidation phase or a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands reflected a volatility contraction in the late morning hours, which preceded the breakout attempt. As the session progressed, bands expanded significantly in the afternoon, aligning with increased price action near key support levels. Notably, the closing candle formed a long bearish shadow, signaling indecision and potential for further downward pressure.

The 15-minute candlestick volume was generally subdued, but spikes were observed during key reversal periods, particularly around 22:30 ET and 15:30 ET. The volume patterns aligned with price action, confirming bearish sentiment during the session’s close. Notional turnover increased during pullback phases but remained below average during the peak of the bullish move, suggesting limited conviction in the upward thrust.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the morning high to the afternoon low revealed potential key levels at 238,200 ARS (38.2%), 235,000 ARS (61.8%), and 231,000 ARS (78.6%). These levels acted as barriers and may provide directional clues for the next 24-hour period.

Looking ahead, the market appears to be entering a consolidation phase following the sharp retracement in the afternoon. Investors may watch the 231,000 ARS level for signs of a potential short-term bounce, though the bearish momentum is likely to remain dominant if the key support levels continue to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy for this market could focus on swing trades initiated at overbought RSI conditions (e.g., RSI ≥ 70), with exits triggered at key Fibonacci support levels. Given the pronounced bearish reversal patterns and the volume confirmation during pullbacks, a short-biased strategy might be more appropriate. The strategy could involve entering positions on a close below the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss set just above the nearest swing high and a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Testing this hypothesis using historical RSI and moving average data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08 would provide insights into its robustness in this pair’s unique environment.